After a big win for Bernie Sanders in the New Hampshire primary, the focus turns to the next two contests: the Nevada Democratic caucus on February 20 and the South Carolina primary on February 23. Hillary Clinton leads the most recent polls in South Carolina and holds the national lead, but a new Nevada poll shows Sanders pulling even in the state. The FiveThirtyEight forecasts and PredictWise betting markets, meanwhile, still favor Hillary across the board, though a lack of recent data could be giving an outdated picture there, too.
Pledged Delegate Count | 2,382 Total Delegates Needed for Victory |
Bernie Sanders | 36 |
Hillary Clinton | 32 |
Here’s a look at the state of the race:
Nevada: New Poll Shows a Tie
The Polls
A new poll from TargetPoint shows a tie in Nevada, a reaction to Clinton’s uncomfortably close win in the Iowa caucus and Sanders taking New Hampshire by a landslide. Before that, the most recent previous poll was conducted in late December:
TargetPoint | Released February 12 |
Hillary Clinton | 45% |
Bernie Sanders | 45% |
Gravis | Released December 28 |
Hillary Clinton | 50% |
Bernie Sanders | 27% |
RealClearPolitics Averages | |
Hillary Clinton | 47.5% |
Bernie Sanders | 36% |
The Forecasts
Election forecaster FiveThirtyEight weights polls according to methodological rigor and past accuracy. Their weighted polling track is currently very favorable to Clinton, but they’ve held off on forecasting due to a lack of recent polling data:
FiveThirtyEight Weighted Pollint Track | |
Hillary Clinton | 50.3% |
Bernie Sanders | 28.1% |
The Betting Markets
Political betting markets report the amount and value of bets placed on a political candidate to win a particular race. Unlike polls, they can react to day-to-day events but are more removed from the process due to lack of actual contact with voters. Betting aggregator PredictWise compiles the action in several betting markets to provide probabilities for the race:
PredictWise Nevada Forecast | |
Hillary Clinton | 62% |
Bernie Sanders | 38% |
South Carolina: Hillary Leads Pending Important Information
The Polls
The most recent polls for South Carolina were released in late January, making the information more current than what we have in Iowa but still missing crucial details like the results of the first two contests. What we know as of late January is that Hillary was well in the lead:
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist | Released January 28 |
Hillary Clinton | 64% |
Bernie Sanders | 27% |
CBS News/YouGov | Released January 24 |
Hillary Clinton | 60% |
Bernie Sanders | 38% |
RealClearPolitics Averages | |
Hillary Clinton | 62% |
Bernie Sanders | 32.5% |
The Forecasts
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast factors in elements like previous primary results, endorsements, and national polling trends to add context to the polling numbers. Their polls-plus forecast for South Carolina is extremely favorable to Clinton, keeping in mind that the polls are still slightly out of date:
FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast | |
Hillary Clinton | 95% |
Bernie Sanders | 5% |
Their polls-only forecast weighs recent polls according to methodological rigor and past accuracy, and shows a slightly more hopeful picture for Sanders:
FiveThirtyEight Polls-Only Forecast | |
Hillary Clinton | 93% |
Bernie Sanders | 7% |
The Betting Markets
The betting markets for South Carolina, based on day-to-day reactions, are not as sold on Clinton as the pre-Iowa and -New Hampshire polls, but they still heavily favor the former Secretary of State:
PredictWise South Carolina Betting Markets | |
Hillary Clinton | 86% |
Bernie Sanders | 14% |
The Rest of the Country
The Polls
There are three national polls from the beginning of February, meaning that we have a better grasp of the national race than either of the states, albeit with two caveats: there’s still no data from after the New Hampshire race, and national polls aren’t always predictive. The close finish in Iowa made some impact on the national polls in favor of Sanders, but the extent is disputed:
Quinnipiac | Released February 5 |
Hillary Clinton | 44% |
Bernie Sanders | 42% |
Rasmussen | Released February 5 |
Hillary Clinton | 50% |
Bernie Sanders | 32% |
Public Policy Polling | Released February 4 |
Hillary Clinton | 53% |
Bernie Sanders | 32% |
The Betting Markets
Hillary Clinton is still a strong favorite to win the Democratic nomination despite close finishes in the first two primary races:
PredictWise Democratic Nomination Betting Markets | |
Hillary Clinton | 82% |
Bernie Sanders | 18% |
News of the Day
- Congressman John Lewis (D-Georgia), a former civil rights activist, said he “never saw” Bernie Sanders in 1960s demonstrations, but that the Clintons had attended events.
- DNC Chairperson Debbie Wasserman Schultz dismissed the idea of a future Democratic debate hosted by Fox News in an interview with Bret Baier.
Democratic Primary & Debate Schedule
Debate Schedule
Florida: March 9, Univision
Primary Schedule
Nevada: February 20
South Carolina: February 27
Super Tuesday (Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia): March 1
Kansas, Louisiana: March 5
Maine: March 6
Michigan, Mississippi, Democrats Abroad: March 8
Northern Mariana Islands: March 12
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio: March 15
Arizona, Idaho, Utah: March 22
Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: March 26
Wisconsin: April 5
Wyoming: April 9
New York: April 19
Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26
Indiana: May 3
West Virginia: May 10
Kentucky, Oregon: May 17
California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota: June 7
Washington, D.C.: June 14