Democratic Polls for Feb. 9: State of the Race in New Hampshire & Nevada

Bernie Sanders polls, Bernie Sanders New Hampshire, Bernie Sanders Nevada

Bernie Sanders campaigns in New Hampshire, where he holds a significant polling lead. (Getty)

The New Hampshire primary is upon us, and with it a chance to radically alter the race. Iowa winner Hillary Clinton trails Bernie Sanders by a substantial margin in New Hampshire. Moving on to South Carolina and Nevada, though, the advantage returns to Hillary, as does the national lead.

Delegate Count (2,382 Needed for Nomination)

  • Hillary Clinton: 23
  • Bernie Sanders: 21
  • Here’s a look at the state of the race:

    New Hampshire

    Hillary Clinton polls, Hillary Clinton New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton Nevada

    Hillary Clinton campaigns in New Hampshire, where she trails significantly on primary election day. (Getty)

    Polls continue to consistently show a Sanders lead but differ on the size of that lead. The UMass-Lowell tracking poll shows a 16-point lead for Sanders, 55 percent percent to 40 percent, a stabilizing lead for Sanders after a significant drop post-Iowa. Emerson is less favorable to Sanders, with a 12-point lead at 54-42. CNN/WMUR, however, reports a Sanders advantage of 26 points, 61 percent to 35 percent.

    Sanders leads in the RealClearPolitics aggregation of recent polls by 13.2 points, with 53.9 percent to Clinton’s 40.7.

    New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)

    • Bernie Sanders: 53.9%
    • Hillary Clinton: 40.7%

    FiveThirtyEight, which utilizes factors beyond polls in its “polls-plus” predictions, is now practically guaranteeing Sanders’s chances at a greater than 99 percent chance. It’s important to note, though, that this is based on available information, which could still change in the four days until polling opens. Its polls-only forecast, which doesn’t use extra factors but weights the polls according to methodology and past accuracy, puts Sanders all the way at 98 percent.

    FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast for New Hampshire

  • Bernie Sanders: >99%
  • Hillary Clinton: <1%
  • Click the “next page” button below for New Hampshire and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.

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