Monday night’s Iowa caucus is behind us, and the focus turns to January 9’s New Hampshire primary. While Hillary Clinton managed to hold off Bernie Sanders in Iowa, Sanders has maintained a substantial lead in New Hampshire ahead of Thursday’s debate. Moving on to South Carolina and Nevada, though, the advantage returns to Hillary, as does the national lead.
Delegate Count (2,382 Needed for Nomination)
Here’s a look at the state of the race:
New Hampshire
The UMass-Lowell tracking poll shows a 22-point lead for Sanders, 58 percent to 36 percent. Clinton has gained 4 points and narrowed the gap by 7; Bernie has lost only 3 points, though, meaning that part of her increase is likely due to O’Malley being dropped from the poll. Sanders leads in the RealClearPolitics aggregation of recent polls by 15.8 points, with 54.6 percent to Clinton’s 38.8, with O’Malley still holding 2.3 percent due to the lack of recent polling.
New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
- Bernie Sanders: 54.6%
- Hillary Clinton: 38.8%
FiveThirtyEight, which utilizes factors beyond polls in its “polls-plus” predictions, holds Sanders’s chances in the state at 96 percent, with Hillary at 4. Its polls-only forecast, which doesn’t use extra factors but weights the polls according to methodology and past accuracy, puts Sanders all the way at 98 percent.
FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast for New Hampshire
Click the “next page” button below for New Hampshire and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.