Nevada Caucus 2016: Latest Democratic Polls

Bernie Sanders polls, Hillary Clinton polls, Nevada Democratic polls

Sanders and Clinton at the most recent debate. Clinton is a slight favorite according to recent Nevada polls. (Getty)

The Polls

New polls from Gravis and CNN/ORC show Clinton ahead of Sanders by a slight margin:

Gravis Released February 18
Hillary Clinton 53%
Bernie Sanders 47%


CNN/ORC Released February 17
 Hillary Clinton  48%
Bernie Sanders 47%

These contradict a TargetPoint poll from earlier this week:

TargetPoint Released February 12
Hillary Clinton 45%
Bernie Sanders 45%

Before that, the most recent previous poll was conducted in late December:

Gravis Released December 28
Hillary Clinton 50%
Bernie Sanders 27%
RealClearPolitics Averages
Hillary Clinton 47.5%
Bernie Sanders 36%

The Forecasts

Election forecaster FiveThirtyEight released their fist “polls-plus” forecast for Nevada. The forecast takes into account factors like endorsements, previous state results, and national polling trends to give context to the state polls, and declares the Nevada race a dead heat:

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
Hillary Clinton 50%
Bernie Sanders 50%

The Betting Markets

Political betting markets report the amount and value of bets placed on a political candidate to win a particular race. Unlike polls, they can react to day-to-day events but are more removed from the process due to lack of actual contact with voters. Betting aggregator PredictWise compiles the action in several betting markets to provide probabilities for the race:

PredictWise Nevada Forecast
Hillary Clinton 64%
Bernie Sanders 38%