GOP Polls for Feb. 13: State of the Race in South Carolina & Nevada

Nevada: Few Polls, but a Trump Advantage

Marco Rubio had a disappointing New Hampshire finish, but there’s no telling just yet how it will impact his next two states. (Getty)

The Polls

The most recent poll for Nevada was released December 28, meaning that the numbers are even more out of date than those for South Carolina. The nearest polling data we have suggests a sizeable Trump lead:

RealClearPolitics has not released an average for the Nevada polls owing to this lack of recency.

The Forecasts

FiveThirtyEight has not given a polls-plus projection for Nevada, owing to a lack of recent polling data. Their polls-only forecast for Nevada favors Trump:

The Betting Markets

Presidential betting markets, which react more quickly than polling organizations or forecasts derived from them, offer key insight into the day-to-day movement of the race. PredictWise aggregates various betting markets into a summary of the betting action, which at this point is highly favorable to Trump, Cruz and Rubio competitive:

The Rest of the Country: Trump Leads, but Rivals Closer

New Jersey governor Chris Christie dropped out of the Republican race after Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary but declined to name an endorsement. (Getty)

The Polls

In contrast to South Carolina and Nevada, there are new polls for the nation as a whole, and several of them show Trump’s rivals cutting into his lead. However, even the three newest polls are from the beginning of February, before Trump’s big win in New Hampshire and disappointing results from some strong Iowa finishers:

RealClearPolitics aggregated these polls into a rolling average:

The Betting Markets

The PredictWise aggregated betting market data shows a sharp rise for Trump and a sharp fall for Rubio after a big win and a disappointing finish in New Hampshire, respectively. Meanwhile, John Kasich’s odds rise sharply but remain fairly remote following his surprise finish in New Hampshire:

News of the Day

• Planned Parenthood’s Ohio affiliate started a “five-figure” ad campaign pressuring Kasich not to sign a bill defunding the organization in his state.
• Trump reached a settlement in his lawsuit against Spanish-language broadcaster Univision after the network declined to broadcast the Trump-owned Miss USA pageant. Details of the settlement were not disclosed.

GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

South Carolina: February 13, CBS

Texas: February 26, CNN

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7