After a heated debate in South Carolina on Saturday, the focus turns to the state’s “First in the South” primary February 20. Donald Trump leads the states poll’s, according to RealClearPolitics, as well as those in the next state, Nevada. The FiveThirtyEight forecasts and PredictWise prediction markets also come down in Trump’s favor.
Here’s a look at the state of the race:
South Carolina: Trump Well Ahead
Two new polls from South Carolina show a convincing lead for Trump, with Cruz, Rubio and Bush consistently pulling double digits behind him and Kasich slowing in momentum.
|Monmouth||Released February 17|
|Bloomberg||Released February 17|
|Public Policy Polling||Released February 16|
These are consistent with polls from earlier in the week:
|South Carolina House Republican Committee||Released February 16|
|CBS News/YouGov||Released February 14|
|ARG||Released February 14|
RealClearPolitics consolidated these polls into an average for all candidates:
With South Carolina voting Saturday, Trump looks from the state of the polls to add another win to New Hampshire.
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus projections uses external factors like endorsements, the impact of previous state primaries, and national polling trends to give context to state polling numbers. Their forecast for South Carolina significantly favors Trump:
Their polls-only forecast, which weights polls according to methodological rigor and past accuracy, is even friendlier to Trump:
The Betting Markets
Presidential betting markets, which react more quickly than polling organizations or forecasts derived from them, offer key insight into the day-to-day movement of the race. PredictWise aggregates various betting markets into a summary of the betting action, which at this point is highly favorable to Trump, with only Cruz competitive otherwise:
Click the “next page” button below for Nevada and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.