GOP Polls for Feb. 17: State of the Race in South Carolina & Nevada

Nevada: Few Polls, but a Trump Advantage

Marco Rubio polls, Marco Rubio Nevada, Marco Rubio South Carolina

Marco Rubio, here in North Carolina, is having trouble breaking through following a disappointing New Hampshire finish. (Getty)

The Polls

A new poll in Nevada has Trump well ahead, with Rubio taking the runner-up spot from Cruz:

CNN/ORC Released February 17
Donald Trump 45%
Ted Cruz 19%
Marco Rubio 17%

The most recent previous poll for Nevada was released December 28, meaning that the numbers are even more out of date than those for South Carolina. However, it shows Trump has actually increased his lead:

Gravis Released January 28
Donald Trump 33%
Ted Cruz 20%
Marco Rubio 11%

RealClearPolitics averaged these two polls:

RealClearPolitics Average
Donald Trump 39%
Ted Cruz 18.5%
Marco Rubio 15%


The Forecasts

FiveThirtyEight has not given a polls-plus projection for Nevada, owing to a lack of recent polling data. Their polls-only forecast for Nevada favors Trump:

Donald Trump 31.4%
Ted Cruz 19.0%
Marco Rubio 10.8%


The Betting Markets

Presidential betting markets, which react more quickly than polling organizations or forecasts derived from them, offer key insight into the day-to-day movement of the race. PredictWise aggregates various betting markets into a summary of the betting action, which at this point is highly favorable to Trump, with Rubio competitive:

Donald Trump 77%
Marco Rubio 14%

The Rest of the Country: Trump Leads, but Rivals Closer

Nikki Haley Rubio, Marco Rubio Haley, Nikki Haley endorsement

Governor Nikki Haley, here at a GOP event in South Carolina, endorsed Rubio for President Wednesday. (Getty)

The Polls

New national polls show that Trump’s national lead may not be as secure as his state leads seem, but the extent of which, and who benefits, is a heavily mixed message:

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Released February 17
Ted Cruz 28%
Donald Trump 26%
Marco Rubio 17%
John Kasich 11%
Ben Carson 10%


Quinnipiac Released February 17
Donald Trump 39%
Marco Rubio 19%
Ted Cruz 18%


USA Today/Suffolk Released February 17
Donald Trump 35%
Ted Cruz 20%
Marco Rubio 17%


RealClearPolitics aggregated these polls into a rolling average:

RealClearPolitics Averages
Donald Trump 33.3%
Ted Cruz 22%
Marco Rubio 17.7%

The Betting Markets

The PredictWise aggregated betting market data shows a sharp rise for Trump and a sharp fall for Rubio after a big win and a disappointing finish in New Hampshire, respectively. Meanwhile, John Kasich’s odds rise sharply but remain fairly remote following his surprise finish in New Hampshire:

Betting Market Data
Donald Trump 47%
Marco Rubio 28%
Ted Cruz 13%
Jeb Bush 10%

News of the Day

  • Nikki Haley, the South Carolina Republican governor, State of the Union responder, and potential VP candidate, is reportedly set to endorse Rubio.
  • Cruz responded dismissively to Trump’s threat of a lawsuit regarding his citizenship.

GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

Texas: February 26, CNN

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7