Nevada: Few Polls, but a Trump Advantage
Marco Rubio, here in North Carolina, is having trouble breaking through following a disappointing New Hampshire finish. (Getty)
The Polls
A new poll in Nevada has Trump well ahead, with Rubio taking the runner-up spot from Cruz:
| CNN/ORC | Released February 17 |
| Donald Trump | 45% |
| Ted Cruz | 19% |
| Marco Rubio | 17% |
The most recent previous poll for Nevada was released December 28, meaning that the numbers are even more out of date than those for South Carolina. However, it shows Trump has actually increased his lead:
| Gravis | Released January 28 |
| Donald Trump | 33% |
| Ted Cruz | 20% |
| Marco Rubio | 11% |
RealClearPolitics averaged these two polls:
| RealClearPolitics Average | |
| Donald Trump | 39% |
| Ted Cruz | 18.5% |
| Marco Rubio | 15% |
The Forecasts
FiveThirtyEight has not given a polls-plus projection for Nevada, owing to a lack of recent polling data. Their polls-only forecast for Nevada favors Trump:
| Donald Trump | 31.4% |
| Ted Cruz | 19.0% |
| Marco Rubio | 10.8% |
The Betting Markets
Presidential betting markets, which react more quickly than polling organizations or forecasts derived from them, offer key insight into the day-to-day movement of the race. PredictWise aggregates various betting markets into a summary of the betting action, which at this point is highly favorable to Trump, with Rubio competitive:
| Donald Trump | 77% |
| Marco Rubio | 14% |
The Rest of the Country: Trump Leads, but Rivals Closer
Governor Nikki Haley, here at a GOP event in South Carolina, endorsed Rubio for President Wednesday. (Getty)
The Polls
New national polls show that Trump’s national lead may not be as secure as his state leads seem, but the extent of which, and who benefits, is a heavily mixed message:
| NBC News/Wall Street Journal | Released February 17 |
| Ted Cruz | 28% |
| Donald Trump | 26% |
| Marco Rubio | 17% |
| John Kasich | 11% |
| Ben Carson | 10% |
| Quinnipiac | Released February 17 |
| Donald Trump | 39% |
| Marco Rubio | 19% |
| Ted Cruz | 18% |
| USA Today/Suffolk | Released February 17 |
| Donald Trump | 35% |
| Ted Cruz | 20% |
| Marco Rubio | 17% |
RealClearPolitics aggregated these polls into a rolling average:
| RealClearPolitics Averages | |
| Donald Trump | 33.3% |
| Ted Cruz | 22% |
| Marco Rubio | 17.7% |
The Betting Markets
The PredictWise aggregated betting market data shows a sharp rise for Trump and a sharp fall for Rubio after a big win and a disappointing finish in New Hampshire, respectively. Meanwhile, John Kasich’s odds rise sharply but remain fairly remote following his surprise finish in New Hampshire:
| Betting Market Data | |
| Donald Trump | 47% |
| Marco Rubio | 28% |
| Ted Cruz | 13% |
| Jeb Bush | 10% |
News of the Day
- Nikki Haley, the South Carolina Republican governor, State of the Union responder, and potential VP candidate, is reportedly set to endorse Rubio.
- Cruz responded dismissively to Trump’s threat of a lawsuit regarding his citizenship.
GOP Primary & Debate Schedule
Debate Schedule
Texas: February 26, CNN
Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News
Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio
Primary Schedule
South Carolina: February 20
Nevada: February 23
Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1
Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5
Puerto Rico: March 6
Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8
Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12
Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15
Virgin Islands: March 19
American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22
Wisconsin: April 5
Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26
Indiana: May 3
Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10
Oregon: May 17
Washington: May 24
California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7
