GOP Polls for Feb. 15: State of the Race in South Carolina & Nevada

GOP polls, South Carolina polls, Nevada polls

The Republican Presidential candidates at the South Carolina debate. (Getty)

After a heated debate in South Carolina on Saturday, the focus turns to the state’s “First in the South” primary February 20. Donald Trump leads the states poll’s, according to RealClearPolitics, as well as those in the next state, Nevada. The FiveThirtyEight forecasts and PredictWise prediction markets also come down in Trump’s favor.

Delegate Count

Donald Trump 17
Ted Cruz 11
Marco Rubio 10
John Kasich 5
Jeb Bush 4
Ben Carson 3

Here’s a look at the state of the race:


South Carolina: Trump Well Ahead

Donald Trump polls, DOnald Trump South Carolina, Donald Trump Nevada

Donald Trump, here before the debate in South Carolina, leads the states polls. Getty

The Polls

Two new polls from South Carolina show a convincing lead for Trump, with Cruz, Rubio and Bush consistently pulling double digits behind him and Kasich starting to show momentum.

CBS News/YouGov Released February 14
Donald Trump  42%
Ted Cruz 20%
Marco Rubio 15%

 

ARG Released February 14
Donald Trump 35%
John Kasich 15%
Marco Rubio 14%
Ted Cruz 12%
Jeb Bush 10%

Trump figures to have actually increased his lead from last week’s polls:

 

Augusta Chronicle Released February 12
Donald Trump 36%
Ted Cruz 20%
Marco Rubio 15%
Jeb Bush 11%

 

SC House GOP Caucus Released February 12
Donald Trump 35%
Ted Cruz 16%
Marco Rubio 13%
Jeb Bush 13%

RealClearPolitics consolidated these polls into an average for all candidates:

 

RealClearPolitics Averages
Donald Trump 37%
Ted Cruz 17%
Marco Rubio 14.3%
John Kasich 10.5%
Jeb Bush 10%

With one week to go until South Carolina votes, Trump looks from the state of the polls to add another win to New Hampshire.


The Forecasts

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus projections uses external factors like endorsements, the impact of previous state primaries, and national polling trends to give context to state polling numbers. Their forecast for South Carolina significantly favors Trump:

Donald Trump 70%
Marco Rubio 14%

Their polls-only forecast, which weights polls according to methodological rigor and past accuracy, is even friendlier to Trump:

Donald Trump 82%
Ted Cruz 9%

The Betting Markets

Presidential betting markets, which react more quickly than polling organizations or forecasts derived from them, offer key insight into the day-to-day movement of the race. PredictWise aggregates various betting markets into a summary of the betting action, which at this point is highly favorable to Trump, with only Cruz competitive otherwise:

Donald Trump 81%
Ted Cruz 12%

Click the “next page” button below for Nevada and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.


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