GOP Polls for Feb. 16: State of the Race in South Carolina & Nevada

Nevada: Few Polls, but a Trump Advantage

Marco Rubio polls, Marco Rubio Nevada, Marco Rubio South Carolina

Marco Rubio, here in North Carolina, is having trouble breaking through following a disappointing New Hampshire finish. (Getty)


The Polls

The most recent poll for Nevada was released December 28, meaning that the numbers are even more out of date than those for South Carolina. The nearest polling data we have suggests a sizeable Trump lead:

Gravis Released January 28
Donald Trump 33%
Ted Cruz 20%
Marco Rubio 11%

 

CNN/ORC Released October 14
Donald Trump 38%
Ben Carson 22%
Marco Rubio 7%

RealClearPolitics has not released an average for the Nevada polls owing to this lack of recency.


The Forecasts

FiveThirtyEight has not given a polls-plus projection for Nevada, owing to a lack of recent polling data. Their polls-only forecast for Nevada favors Trump:

Donald Trump 31.4%
Ted Cruz 19.2%
Marco Rubio 10.9%

 

The Betting Markets

Presidential betting markets, which react more quickly than polling organizations or forecasts derived from them, offer key insight into the day-to-day movement of the race. PredictWise aggregates various betting markets into a summary of the betting action, which at this point is highly favorable to Trump, Cruz and Rubio competitive:

Donald Trump 68%
Ted Cruz 15%
Marco Rubio 12%

The Rest of the Country: Trump Leads, but Rivals Closer

Rafael Cruz, Ted Cruz citizenship, Ted Cruz Donald Trump

Ted Cruzs parents, Rafael Cruz and Eleanor Darragh Wilson, at a campaign event in Iowa. Cruz is facing a lawsuit over the question of his citizenship. (Getty)

The Polls

The most recent national polls show Trump’s rivals cutting into his lead. However, even the three newest polls are from the beginning of February, before Trump’s big win in New Hampshire and disappointing results from some strong Iowa finishers:

Rasmussen Released February 8
Donald Trump 31%
Marco Rubio 21%
Ted Cruz 20%

 

Quinnipiac Released February 5
Donald Trump 31%
Ted Cruz 22%
Marco Rubio 19%

 

Public Policy Polling Released February 4
Donald Trump 25%
Ted Cruz 21%
Marco Rubio 21%

RealClearPolitics aggregated these polls into a rolling average:

RealClearPolitics Averages
Donald Trump 29%
Ted Cruz 21%
Marco Rubio 20.3%

The Betting Markets

The PredictWise aggregated betting market data shows a sharp rise for Trump and a sharp fall for Rubio after a big win and a disappointing finish in New Hampshire, respectively. Meanwhile, John Kasich’s odds rise sharply but remain fairly remote following his surprise finish in New Hampshire:

Betting Market Data
Donald Trump 49%
Marco Rubio 25%
Ted Cruz 12%
Jeb Bush 11%

News of the Day

  • Despite saying he believed that Cruz was eligible to run for President earlier in the primary season, Trump threatened a lawsuit over the issue on Monday.

GOP Primary & Debate Schedule

Debate Schedule

Texas: February 26, CNN

Location TBD: March 2016, Fox News

Florida: Date TBD, CNN/Salem Radio

Primary Schedule

South Carolina: February 20

Nevada: February 23

Super Tuesday (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming): March 1

Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine: March 5

Puerto Rico: March 6

Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi: March 8

Guam, Washington, D.C.: March 12

Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio: March 15

Virgin Islands: March 19

American Samoa, Arizona, Utah: March 22

Wisconsin: April 5

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island: April 26

Indiana: May 3

Nebraska, West Virginia: May 10

Oregon: May 17

Washington: May 24

California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota: June 7


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