Monday night’s Iowa caucus is behind us, and the focus turns to January 9’s New Hampshire primary. While Ted Cruz managed to pull a last-second upset of frontrunner Donald Trump in Iowa, he polled fairly close to Trump in that state, something that’s not true of New Hampshire. According to RealClearPolitics, Trump leads there by an average of more than 22 points, while Cruz’s rivals, including another surprising Iowa finisher in Marco Rubio, are within striking distance of his second-place spot. New polls for the remaining states haven’t yet measured reaction to Monday’s events, but PredictWiseprediction markets and FiveThirtyEight’s porjections have shown movement in favor of Trump’s rivals, especially for Rubio.
Delegate Count (1,237 Needed)
Here’s a look at the state of the race:
A new poll from Harper shows Trump with a 17-point lead over Jeb Bush, 31-14, with John Kasich at 12, Rubio at 10, and Cruz at 9. Trump is also the only candidate in the poll with positive favorability, at +4; the closes candidates are Kasich and Bush at -5. This poll was taken February 1 and 2, though, so reaction to the Iowa caucus is limited.
The tracking poll from UMass-Lowell/7News updates to show Trump with a 21-point lead over Rubio, 36 to 15 percent, with Cruz third at 14. Rubio has risen from fifth place and single digits on February 1, and UMass-Lowell’s daily updates are definitely capturing some momentum for him following his surprising show in Iowa. According to RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump has an 21-point lead with 32.8 percent of the vote, followed by Cruz at 11.8, Rubio at 11.3, and Kasich at 10.4.
New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast, which considers multiple factors beyond the polls, gives Trump a 65 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Rubio at 17 percent and everyone else in single digits. Their polls-only forecast bumps Trump to 77 percent, with no one else above 7.
FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump holds fairly steady at 66 percent, with Marco Rubio falling 3 points to 18.
Click the “next page” button below for New Hampshire and national polling roundup, as well as a discussion of today’s news.