Super Tuesday Polls 2016: Republican SEC Primary Race

Donald Trump, Trump polls, GOP polls Super Tuesday

Donald Trump remains the GOP frontrunner after a commanding win Saturday in South Carolina. (Getty)

The biggest upcoming date on the Republican presidential election calendar is March 1, otherwise known as Super Tuesday or the SEC primary. That’s when the GOP will hold 12 nominating contests, the majority of them in the South.

There’s not a whole lot of reliable Super Tuesday polling data for either party, for two reasons. One is that pollsters have paid fairly little attention to any of the Super Tuesday states, instead focusing their resources on Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. The other is that Super Tuesday is 10 days away, and that’s a relative lifetime in the fast-moving world of primary campaigns. It’s too early to know with any degree of certainty, for instance, how Jeb Bush’s withdrawal from the race will impact polling going forward. (The conventional wisdom is that Marco Rubio will benefit most from Bush’s exit, but the degree to which it will make a difference remains to be seen.)

Some Super Tuesday states at least have relatively recent polling data. In others, there hasn’t been a single public poll since before the February 1 Iowa caucus. Having said all that, we can get at least a basic idea of the lay of the land in Super Tuesday states where there have been public polls over the past several weeks. We’ll take a look at data below for states in which there has been at least one public poll in February.


Super Tuesday Republican Polls

Alabama: News5/Strategy Poll

The latest News5/Strategy poll was conducted February 15. It has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Donald Trump 38%
Ted Cruz 17%
Marco Rubio 14%
Jeb Bush 14%
Ben Carson 10%
John Kasich 7%

Arkansas: Talk Business/Hendrix College Poll

The latest Talk Business/Hendrix College poll was conducted February 4. It has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Ted Cruz 27%
Marco Rubio 23%
Donald Trump 23%
Ben Carson 11%
John Kasich 4%
Carly Fiorina 4%
Jeb Bush 1%
Chris Christie 1%

Georgia: WSB/Landmark Poll

The WSB TV poll was conducted February 4. The poll has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Donald Trump 27%
Marco Rubio 18%
Ted Cruz 18%
Ben Carson 8%
John Kasich 4%
Chris Christie 4%
Jeb Bush 3%
Carly Fiorina 2%

Massachusetts: Emerson College Poll

Emerson College tweeted its latest Massachusetts poll results Sunday night. We’ll have a link to the full poll when it’s available.

CANDIDATE POLL%
Donald Trump 50%
Marco Rubio 16%
John Kasich 13%
Ted Cruz 10%
Ben Carson 2%

Oklahoma: Sooner Poll

The latest Sooner poll was conducted February 6-9. It has a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Donald Trump 30%
Ted Cruz 25%
Marco Rubio 21%
Ben Carson 6%
Jeb Bush 5%
John Kasich 3%

Texas: University of Texas & Texas Tribute Poll

The latest UT/TT poll was conducted February 12-19. It has a margin of error of 3.48 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Ted Cruz 37%
Donald Trump 29%
Marco Rubio 15%
Jeb Bush 6%
John Kasich 5%
Ben Carson 4%

Virginia: Christopher Newport University Poll

Christopher Newport University conducted a Virginia GOP poll February 3-14. The poll has a margin of error of 5.6 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Donald Trump 28%
Marco Rubio 22%
Ted Cruz 19%
John Kasich 7%
Ben Carson 7%
Jeb Bush 4%

Vermont: Vermont Public Radio Poll

The latest Vermont Public Radio poll was conducted February 3-17. It has a margin of error of 3.27 percentage points.

CANDIDATE VOTE%
Donald Trump 32.4%
Marco Rubio 16.9%
Ted Cruz 10.5%
John Kasich 10%
Jeb Bush 7.7%
Ben Carson 3.1%
Chris Christie 2.4%
Carly Fiorina 1%
Rick Santorum 0.6%


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