Virginia GOP Polls 2016: Trump in Control

Donald Trump polls, Super Tuesday polls, Virginia GOP polls

Donald Trump, here at a campaign rally in Alabama. Trump is in Alabama ahead of the Super Tuesday primaries March 1. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images), leads most Super Tuesday polls, including those in Virginia. (Getty)

With the GOP race well underway, March 1’s “Super Tuesday” slate of primaries present a critical moment in the race. In addition to most Super Tuesday states, Donald Trump leads the polls in Virginia, with Marco Rubio running a distant second and Ted Cruz taking third. The FiveThirtyEight projections and PredictWise betting markets also favor Trump.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

The Polls: Trump Well Ahead

Polls taken after Trump’s South Carolina victory universally show a double-digit lead for the frontrunner:

CBS News/YouGov Released February 28
Donald Trump 40%
Marco Rubio 27%
Ted Cruz 22%


Monmouth Released February 25
Donald Trump 41%
Marco Rubio 27%
Ted Cruz 14%


Roanoke Released
Donald Trump 38%
Ted Cruz 15%
Marco Rubio 13%

RealClearPolitics compiled these polls into an average:

RealClearPolitics Averages
Donald Trump 36.8%
Marco Rubio 22.3%
Ted Cruz 17.5%

The Forecasts: Trump’s Race to Lose

Election forecaster FiveThirtyEight uses a “polls-plus” forecasting model that includes national poll trends, the results of previous states, and endorsements to pick up on details that impact voters in ways that don’t necessarily register in the polls. They use this model not only to predict a winner but forecast a likely range of each candidate’s share of the votes. This forecast greatly favors Trump in Virginia:

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
Donald Trump 72%
Marco Rubio 27%

The polls-only forecast, which weights the polls according to methodological rigor and past accuracy, is even more favorable to Trump:

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Only Forecast
Donald Trump 84%
Marco Rubio 13%

The Betting Markets: Trump a Heavy Favorite

While polls take a while to conduct and forecasts can’t be updated until polls are, the betting markets react as quickly as day-to-day. While they’re based on reaction to outside observations and may not reflect the will of the voters, they can be an early sign of momentum from one side or the other. The betting markets for Virginia greatly favor Trump:

PredictWise Betting Market Aggregation
Donald Trump 90%
Marco Rubio 7%