Bernie Sanders’ Nomination Chances: Senator Is a Long Shot

Bernie Sanders chances, Bernie Sanders odds, Bernie Sanders polls

Bernie Sanders faces long odds for the rest of the race. (Getty)

April 26 was a disaster for Bernie Sanders. Hillary Clinton took Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, and Connecticut, with Sanders winning only the comparatively delegate-poor Rhode Island primary. The updated delegate count puts Hillary Clinton a little more than 200 delegates from the Democratic nomination.

Democratic Delegate Count (2,383 Needed)
Hillary Clinton 2,165
Bernie Sanders 1,357

With Sanders running out of states, he’ll need some major wins to pull off a victory or even force a contested convention. Unfortunately, the polling, projections and odds from California, Indiana and New Jersey greatly favor Clinton.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

The Polls: Clinton Up Big

Polls from the three most delegate-rich states, as aggregated by RealClearPolitics and Huffpost Pollster, favor Clinton by a wide margin:

California RealClearPolitics Averages 475 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 49%
Bernie Sanders 42.5%


Indiana Huffpost Pollster Averages 83 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 48.5%
Bernie Sanders 43.5%


New Jersey RealClearPolitics Averages* 126 Delegates
Hillary Clinton 57.8%
Bernie Sanders 27.8%

*Limited recent polling

Projections: Major States Favor Clinton

FiveThirtyEight, which uses a polls-plus forecast utilizing factors like endorsements and previous results to give context to the polls, has Clinton as the favorite in the three biggest primaries:

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast: Indiana
Hillary Clinton 91%
Bernie Sanders 9%


FiveThirtyEight Poll Tracking: New Jersey
Hillary Clinton 51.1%
Bernie Sanders 41.3%


FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast: California
Hillary Clinton 89%
Bernie Sanders 11%


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