Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump: General Election Match-Up Polls & Favorability Ratings

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders clash at a Trump rally in Ohio. (Getty)

With both the Republican and Democratic campaigns coming down to the final states, the primary races are heating up. Bernie Sanders is slowly closing the gap against Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton, but two major states are set to go Clinton’s way. Meanwhile, Republican frontrunner Donald Trump leads Ted Cruz by almost 200 delegates but is a long shot to clinch the nomination without the input of a GOP establishment that’s not too fond of him.

With the conventions looming, a lot of minds are turning to the general election. RealClearPolitics polling aggregations show that Sanders beats Trump soundly in matchups, and is well ahead in favorability. This can change quickly, though, as an acrimonious Republican race ends.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

Match-Up Polls: Sanders Well Ahead

Despite Trump’s assertion that a race against Sanders will be “at least as easy and easier” than one against Clinton, he’s significantly behind in general election match-up polls against Sanders, even more so than in races against Clinton.

Trump most recently won a 2-point victory in a USA Today poll in February. Despite currently being at a higher deficit to Sanders, Trump’s actually won more against him than Clinton, having taken six polls and tying another in a shorter time frame (since July) than Clinton (May).

Favorability Ratings: Sanders on Top, Trump Last

Favorability polls track the simple question of whether or not voters like a candidate rather than their chances in an election against one or more other candidates. Sanders is the most favorably viewed candidate in the race by this metric, while Donald Trump is nearing historical lows.

What Could Change: A Long Road Ahead

The first thing that should be noted to put these numbers in context is that Sanders is not winning his primary. While these numbers are a very favorable talking point for Sanders, an unfavorable road to the convention might make them irrelevant in the long run. Trump, meanwhile, has his own primary hurdle: he’s increasingly unlikely to clinch the nomination before the convention, at which point he would face a big struggle from an establishment that dislikes him.

Another potential confounder is the results of a nasty GOP primary race. Large numbers of GOP voters are weary of the campaign’s negativity, with the results putting downward pressure on all GOP candidates. As the Republicans rally around whoever’s chosen, the nominee will likely see rising favorability.