With both the Republican and Democratic campaigns coming down to the final states, the primary races are heating up. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both had huge days on April 26, increasing the likelihood that they will be the general election matchup come November.
|Democratic Delegate Count (2,383 Needed)||Pledged Delegates||All Delegates|
|Republican Delegate Count||1,237 Needed|
With the conventions looming, a lot of minds are turning to the general election. RealClearPolitics polling aggregations show that Clinton beats Trump soundly in matchups, and is well ahead in favorability. This can change quickly, though, as an acrimonious Republican race ends.
Here’s a look at the state of the race:
Match-Up Polls: Clinton Holds Substantial Lead
Despite Trump’s assertion that Clinton would be “easy to beat,” he’s significantly behind in general election match-up polls aggregated by polling site RealClearPolitics, though not as far back as in races against Sanders.
|RCP: Clinton vs. Trump||Clinton||Trump|
|Public Policy Polling||48||41|
Trump’s last victory against Clinton head-to-head was a 2-point edge in a USA Today poll in February. Clinton has won all but five matchups with Trump since RealClearPolitics began tracking the matchup in May 2015. The George Washington poll, however, has her at only +3, within the poll’s margin of error (3.1).
Favorability: Clinton Low, Trump Abysmal
Clinton and Trump combine for the most-hated frontrunner duo in favorability polling history. This is certainly bad news for Clinton, but there’s a ray of hope: she’s doing far better than Trump, who is the least-liked candidate since polls began tracking the issue.
Democrats Favored in the Betting Markets
The betting markets, as aggregated by PredictWise, don’t track hypothetical matchups, and likely won’t handle general election candidates by name until they’re named as such at the party conventions. In party terms, however, the markets like the Democrats’ chances, giving the party a 75 percent chance to take the White House against just 27 for the Republicans.
Part of this, however, is likely due to their confidence in Trump regarding the primaries. Though it was as high as 80 percent at the beginning of March, the markets still hold Trump as a 64 percent favorite to take the nomination. Given Trump’s double-digit losses to both Democratic candidates, it’s a reasonable prediction, but it does require Trump to clinch the nomination, which is very much up in the air.
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