Ted Cruz received a big boost with his Wisconsin victory in his continued attempt to stop Donald Trump from reaching the needed 1,237 delegates to secure the nomination. The early New York polling data does not look as favorable for Cruz.
In a recent poll conducted by Monmouth, Cruz came in third. Trump had a 27 percentage point lead on John Kasich, while Cruz trailed Trump by 35 percentage points.
Trump has had a comfortable lead in his home state in every early poll conducted within the last month. Not only was Trump born in New York, but has had many successful business ventures throughout the state.
There are 95 delegates at stake in the upcoming primary. The delegates are divided proportionally with a few exceptions. There are 81 Congressional districts each with one delegate awarded to the winner of the district. If a candidate reaches 50% of the votes, he wins 14 automatic delegates and the majority of other delegates. There is also a qualifying threshold of 20% to be able to get a share of the delegates.
It seems unlikely anyone will catch Trump in New York and interest will center around Trump’s margin of victory given its impact on the delegate race. If he can get over 50% of the votes, it would help him widen his lead. Cruz will want to win at least 20% of the votes in order to qualify for delegates.
Here’s a look at the latest New York Republican polls.
RealClear Politics Average
RealClear Politics keeps a running average of the New York polls. The average includes data from five polls. The Monmouth poll conducted April 3-5, the CBS News/YouGov poll conducted March 29-April 1, the Quinnipiac poll conducted March 22-29, the Liberty Research poll conducted March 24-26 and the Optimus poll conducted March 22-24.
The Monmouth poll was conducted April 3-5. It has a margin of error of 5.6 percentage points.
The CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted March 29-April 1. It has a margin of error of 5.6 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac poll was conducted March 22-29. It has a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points.
The Liberty Research poll was conducted March 24-26. It has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
The Optimus poll was conducted March 22-24. It has a margin of error of 1 percentage point.
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