Donald Trump has had a sizable lead in the early New York polls for months. The latest polls show not much has changed among New York Republican voters.
Based on the early polling numbers, it is extremely unlikely anyone will be able to top Trump in Tuesday’s primary. The more interesting thing to watch will likely be his margin of victory.
Overall, the state’s 95 bound delegates are divided among the candidates based on the results. Each of the 27 districts have three delegates up for grabs for a total of 81 delegates. According to FiveThirtyEight, the congressional delegates are split 2-1 between the top two finishers. The remaining 14 delegates are divided among the candidates based on the overall state’s voting numbers.
On both levels, there is a 50 percent trigger where the delegates become winner-take-all if a candidate gets more than 50 percent of the votes. Trump’s expected margin of victory in the state as well as each congressional district will be critical in determining the delegate breakdown. Ted Cruz and John Kasich will be aiming to see Trump get less than 50 percent of the votes so the winner-take-all triggers do not play a role.
Here’s a look at the latest New York GOP polls.
RealClear Politics Average
RealClear Politics keeps a running average of the latest New York polls. The average includes data from seven polls. The Emerson poll conducted April 15-17, the CBS News/YouGov poll conducted April 13-15, the NBC 4 NY/WSJ/Marist poll conducted April 10-13, the Optimus poll conducted April 11-14, the Quinnipiac poll conducted April 6-11, the Siena poll conducted April 6-11 and the PPP poll conducted April 7-10.
The Emerson poll was conducted April 15-17. It has a margin of error of 5.1 percentage points.
The CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted April 13-15. It has a margin of error of 5.9 percentage points.
NBC 4 NY/WSJ/Marist
The NBC 4/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll was conducted April 10-13. It has a margin of error of 5.5 percentage points.
The Optimus poll was conducted April 11-14. It has a margin of error of 1 percentage point.
The Quinnipiac poll was conducted April 6-11. It has a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.
The Siena poll was conducted April 6-11. It has a margin of error of 5.0 percentage points.
The PPP poll was conducted April 7-10. It has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.