Pennsylvania Republican Polls 2016: Trump Leads the Pack

HAGERSTOWN, MD - APRIL 24: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks while campaigning at the Hagerstown airport April 24, 2016 in Hagerstown, Maryland. Maryland holds their presidential primary on Tuesday, along with Delaware, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Connecticut. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

HAGERSTOWN, MD – APRIL 24: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks while campaigning at the Hagerstown airport April 24, 2016 in Hagerstown, Maryland. Maryland holds their presidential primary on Tuesday, along with Delaware, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Connecticut. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

With one day to go until votes are cast, Donald Trump continues to lead the pack in Pennsylvania. The Republican frontrunner over Ohio governor John Kasich and Ted Cruz, Trump is the only candidate of the three who can secure a first-ballot nomination at the GOP convention. To do so, however, he’ll need a large share of the remaining delegates, including the 71 up for grabs in Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania’s primary works a little different compared to the other GOP contests. 54 of the 71 delegates are not bound to any candidate on the first ballot regardless of how the state votes. Given Trump’s testy relationship with the Republican establishment, he’ll need a major share of the remaining 17.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:


The Polls: Trump Out in Front

Polling aggregator RealClearPolitics shows a convincing lead for Trump just one day ahead of the primary:

Poll Donald Trump Ted Cruz John Kasich
Public Policy Polling 51 25 22
CBS News/YouGov 49 26 22
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist 45 27 24
RealClearPolitics Average 45.8 26.4 23

While Trump leads solidly in Pennsylvania as a whole, regional analyses could spell trouble for him. NBC News reports very close races for Trump in Philadelphia’s suburbs (40-36 over Kasich) and among white evangelicals (38-34 over Cruz), meaning that small bumps in turnout one way or another could make a few delegates’ difference.


The Forecasts: Trump Ahead

FiveThirtyEight, which uses a polls-plus forecast utilizing factors like endorsements and previous results to give context to the polls, gives Trump an almost-certain 99 percent chance of winning the Pennsylvania Republican primary:

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast Chance of Winning
Donald Trump >99%
Ted Cruz <1%

Its polls-only forecast, which doesn’t use external factors but weights the polls according to methodological rigor and past accuracy, isn’t any friendlier to the other candidates:

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Only Forecast Chance of Winning
Donald Trump >99%
John Kasich <1%

The Betting Markets: Trump a Prohibitive Favorite

Betting markets measure the amount that gamblers place on a particular candidate to win a primary, nomination, or election. While they’re able to move much faster than polls due to a looser methodology, it’s important to note that they’re only well-informed opinions (at best), not a rigorous measure. PredictWise, which aggregates the results of several betting markets, calls Trump an overwhelming favorite to take the Pennsylvania primary:

PredictWise Betting Markets Chance of Winning
Donald Trump 97%
John Kasich 1%
Ted Cruz 1%

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