With time running out in the 2016 primaries, it’s all coming down to the last few states. Though Hillary Clinton has a substantial lead in the primary process, Bernie Sanders has provided enough of a challenge to potentially force a contested convention, where he can swing superdelegates in his favor.
|Democratic Delegate Count (2,383 Needed)|
Indiana’s 83 delegates make it one of the largest remaining primary contests, with Clinton expected to win the bulk of them according to the polls and forecasts. However, Sanders should be able to keep it close enough to avoid a knockout blow.
Here’s a look at the state of the race:
The Polls: Clinton on Top
The polls, as aggregated by polling website RealClearPolitics, show a single-digit lead for Clinton:
|RealClearPolitics: Indiana Democratic Primary||Clinton||Sanders|
|NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist||50%||46%|
The Forecasts: Clinton Expected to Win
FiveThirtyEight, which uses a polls-plus forecast utilizing factors like endorsements and previous results to give context to the polls, has Clinton as the overwhelming favorite in Indiana:
|FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast: Indiana|
Their polls-only forecasts, which weights polls for methodological rigor and past accuracy, is a little friendlier to Sanders:
|FiveThirtyEight Polls-Only Forecast: Indiana|