Indiana Democratic Polls 2016: Clinton Has the Lead on Primary Day

Hillary Clinton polls, Democratic Indiana polls, Hillary Clinton Indiana

Hillary Clinton campaigning in Indiana. (Getty)

With time running out in the 2016 primaries, it’s all coming down to the last few states. Though Hillary Clinton has a substantial lead in the primary process, Bernie Sanders has provided enough of a challenge to potentially force a contested convention, where he can swing superdelegates in his favor.

Democratic Delegate Count (2,383 Needed)
Hillary Clinton 2,165
Bernie Sanders 1,357

Indiana’s 83 delegates make it one of the largest remaining primary contests, with Clinton expected to win the bulk of them according to the polls and forecasts. However, Sanders should be able to keep it close enough to avoid a knockout blow.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

The Polls: Clinton on Top

The polls, as aggregated by polling website RealClearPolitics, show a single-digit lead for Clinton:

RealClearPolitics: Indiana Democratic Primary Clinton Sanders
NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist 50% 46%
ARG 51% 43%
CBS/YouGov 49% 44%
IPFW/Downs Center 54% 41%
Fox News 46% 42%
RCP Average 50% 43.2%

The Forecasts: Clinton Expected to Win

FiveThirtyEight, which uses a polls-plus forecast utilizing factors like endorsements and previous results to give context to the polls, has Clinton as the overwhelming favorite in Indiana:

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast: Indiana
Hillary Clinton 91%
Bernie Sanders 9%

Their polls-only forecasts, which weights polls for methodological rigor and past accuracy, is a little friendlier to Sanders:

FiveThirtyEight Polls-Only Forecast: Indiana
Hillary Clinton 86%
Bernie Sanders 14%

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