New polls show that Hillary Clinton is beginning to catch up on Donald Trump in Missouri, a red state that has not voted for a Democratic candidate since 1996.
The majority of polls conducted in the state show Donald Trump beating Clinton, but rarely by as sizable a margin as one would expect considering Mitt Romney won the state by 10 points in 2012. Still, it seems likely Trump will be able to increase his lead in the coming weeks as undecided Republicans reluctantly commit to him. FiveThirtyEight forecasts Trump has a 64.6 percent chance of winning Missouri.
As collected by FiveThirtyEight, here are some of the recent 2016 election polls from Missouri.
This Remington poll was conducted on August 5th and August 6th by speaking to 1,280 likely voters. The margin of error is three percent.
Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson earned five percent of the vote in this poll.
For comparison, a poll conducted in early August 2012 by SurveyUSA showed Mitt Romney ahead of Barack Obama by one point in Missouri. However, this was several weeks before Romney’s convention, whereas by the time Remington conducted this 2016 poll, Trump and Clinton had both held their national conventions.
The 2012 Republican National Convention took place from August 27th through August 30th. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted during the week of the 2012 Republican National convention had Mitt Romney ahead of Barack Obama by 12 points in Missouri. This began to even out weeks later, as the next poll, from September 11th, had Romney ahead by just three points.
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.
Mason-Dixon’s poll was conducted on July 23rd and July 24th by speaking to 625 likely voters. This was a few days after the 2016 Republican National Convention, where Donald Trump accepted his party’s nomination. The margin of error is four percentage points.
Days after his convention, then, Trump did not seem to receive much of a bump in Missouri. On the other hand, Mitt Romney received a significant bump after his convention, rising from being behind Barack Obama by one point on August 22nd to being ahead of him by 12 points on August 29th.
This was the first major poll since the presidential primaries ended to show Clinton ahead of Trump in Missouri.
SurveyUSA’s poll, conducted from July 20th to 24th, gives Trump a significantly larger lead over Clinton in the days following his party’s convention. The poll was conducted by speaking to 1,943 likely voters, and the margin of error is 2.3 percent.
Libertarian Gary Johnson scored eight percent of the vote, while seven percent of voters were still undecided.
SurveyUSA found that Donald Trump leads in the state among both men and women. Men favored Trump over Clinton 51 percent to 33 percent, while women favored Trump over Clinton 43 percent to 41 percent.
However, Hillary Clinton held a substantial lead among black voters. Eighty eight percent of the black vote went to Hillary Clinton, whereas Trump earned eight percent of it. Trump leads Clinton among white Americans 52 percent to 32 percent.
Public Policy Polling
Public Policy Polling’s survey was conducted on July 11th and July 12th, a week prior to the Republican National Convention. In it, Trump leads Clinton by 10 points, exactly the same lead as he had immediately after the convention. The poll was conducted by speaking to 959 registered voters. The margin of error is 3.2 percent.
Libertarian Gary Johnson earned seven percent of the vote, while the Green Party’s Jill Stein earned one percent.
As Public Policy Polling points out, 10 points is the same margin by which Mitt Romney won Missouri in 2012.
Trump and Clinton are both rather unpopular in Missouri, though, as is the case in most states across the country. Fifty six percent of those polled said they had a negative view of Donald Trump compared to 64 percent who said the same of Hillary Clinton.
As well, 57 percent of those polled said they disapproved of the job Barack Obama is doing as president. This number is about the same as Hillary Clinton’s unfavorable rating.
The next set of polls were all conducted during the presidential primaries, before Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton secured their party’s nomination. DFM Research polled 674 likely voters from March 17th through March 24th. The margin of error is 3.8 percentage points.
Sixty three percent of those polled said they have a negative opinion of Donald Trump. This is actually a higher disapproval rating than Barack Obama, whom 56 percent of voters said they had a negative opinion of.
Fort Hays State University
Fort Hays State University’s poll was conducted from March 3rd to March 10th by speaking to 475 voters. The margin of error is 4.6 percentage points.
When given the choice of Marco Rubio or Hillary Clinton, Rubio performed far better than Trump, beating Clinton by 18 points. Ted Cruz, meanwhile, came out 17 points ahead of Hillary Clinton.
Bernie Sanders, though, was actually able to beat Donald Trump by three points in a hypothetical matchup.
Finally, 51 percent of those polled described the current state of the economy as very weak or somewhat weak. Only four percent said it was very strong.
Remington’s poll was conducted on March 3rd and March 4th by speaking to 903 likely voters.