Several recent presidential polls – including one from CNN released on September 6 – show that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are now virtually tied as the race has tightened.
Overall, polling averages that include polls taken a bit earlier show that Clinton is still leading. The RealClear Politics polling average has Clinton up by 3.3. percentage points, but that’s down from 4.1 percentage points a few days ago. That figure averages all major national polls from August 25 through September 5.
RealClear Politics shows that Hillary Clinton’s lead has narrowed as August turned into September, however. That matches data from other sites that study polling averages.
CNN’s poll of the polls shows “Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has been cut in half,” although Clinton still leads 42 percent to 37 percent. However, CNN – which averages five recent national polls – said that’s down from a 10 percent lead right after the Democratic National Convention. The Washington Post also looked at polling averages and found that Trump had gained ground “slightly.”
However, several recent polls now show the race is virtually tied, with the candidates’ leads in the margin of error. Some polls show that the inclusion of Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein erodes Clinton’s support.
Either way, it’s clear that the gap is tightening between the candidates, heading into September and with the debates looming. The polling comes as Trump staged a dramatic meeting with the Mexican president and has made his positions on immigration front-and-center in the public debate; some of the new polls captured the day of the meeting.
The polls also came before the FBI released a summary of its interview with Clinton in which she said she couldn’t remember some briefings because of a concussion she had suffered in 2012.
Clinton enjoyed a post Democratic Convention bounce that grew her lead and erased a brief Trump lead in polling averages earlier in the summer.
Here’s what you need to know:
The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone September 1 through 4 and has a margin of error at plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
In this poll, Stein gets 2 percent and Johnson has 7 percent. CNN says the poll shows that independent voters are giving Trump the lead (although it’s in the margin of error, meaning the candidates are virtually tied).
Investor’s Business Daily
The Investor’s Business Daily poll has Trump and Clinton “virtually” tied. That’s because Clinton leads by 1 percent in the poll, but that’s in the margin of error of +/‐3.4 percentage points. The poll looked at likely voters from August 26 to September 1.
If you include Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Clinton and Trump are literally tied with 39 percent each. Johnson has 12 percent and Stein has 3 percent.
Fox News says its most recent poll shows Clinton with a lead, but she’s slipped from the last poll. Furthermore, if you add in Johnson and Stein, it erodes Clinton’s lead, as Trump leads with independents, Fox News found.
In a four-way matchup, Clinton has 41 percent, Trump has 39 percent, Johnson has 9 percent, and Stein has 4 percent, found the poll, which Fox said was conducted of registered voters from August 28 to August 30 and has a margin of error of three percentage points.
The USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Daybreak Poll conducts daily tracking of the presidential race. It finds a slight lead by Trump on September 2 and also shows an erosion in Clinton’s support.
The IPSOS/Reuters poll also shows the race virtually tied. The pollster says that Trump has gained more support from Republicans, helping him to close the gap with Clinton. Among registered voters, Clinton does better, and her lead grows to 5 percent; in a four-way matchup, Clinton has 40 percent, Trump has 38 percent, Johnson has 6 percent, and Stein has 2 percent, the poll says.
The poll was conducted of likely voters from August 25 to 29 and has a credibility interval of 2.5 percentage points for all adults.
The YouGov/Economist poll shows Clinton with a bigger lead against Trump than some other recent polls. The poll was conducted August 27 through August 29 and has a margin of error of 4.1 percent.
The poll also shows Johnson with 7 percent and Stein with 3 percent.
Public Policy Polling
The Public Policy Polling or PPP poll found a more stable race (the site is considered liberal leaning). It also polled black voters about whether they preferred Trump to the bubonic plague; they preferred the bubonic plague.
In this poll, Johnson had 6 percent, Stein had 4 percent, and Evan McMullin had 1 percent. The poll was conducted August 26 to August 28.
The Rasmussen poll shows Trump with a lead in the margin of error. Johnson was at 7 percent, and Stein was at 3 percent.
The poll was conducted on August 29 to August 30, 2016 and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
The USA Today/Suffolk poll showed a much larger lead for Clinton than other polls. Johnson had 9 percent, and Stein had 3 percent.
The poll was conducted on August 24 to 29, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
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