2016 Presidential Polls: Are Trump & Clinton Tied?

MIAMI, FL - JULY 23:  Democratic presidential candidate former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Democratic vice presidential candidate U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) greet supporters during a campaign rally at Florida International University Panther Arena on July 23, 2016 in Miami, Florida. Hillary Clinton and  Tim Kaine made their first public appearance together a day after the Clinton campaign announced Senator Kaine as the Democratic vice presidential candidate.   (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Hillary Clinton and vice presidential running mate Tim Kaine. (Getty)

Several recent presidential polls – including one from CNN released on September 6 – show that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are now virtually tied as the race has tightened.

Overall, polling averages that include polls taken a bit earlier show that Clinton is still leading. The RealClear Politics polling average has Clinton up by 3.3. percentage points, but that’s down from 4.1 percentage points a few days ago. That figure averages all major national polls from August 25 through September 5.

RealClear Politics shows that Hillary Clinton’s lead has narrowed as August turned into September, however. That matches data from other sites that study polling averages.

trump in mexico photo

Donald Trump met with the Mexican president on August 31. (Getty)

CNN’s poll of the polls shows “Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has been cut in half,” although Clinton still leads 42 percent to 37 percent. However, CNN – which averages five recent national polls – said that’s down from a 10 percent lead right after the Democratic National Convention. The Washington Post also looked at polling averages and found that Trump had gained ground “slightly.”

However, several recent polls now show the race is virtually tied, with the candidates’ leads in the margin of error. Some polls show that the inclusion of Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein erodes Clinton’s support.

Either way, it’s clear that the gap is tightening between the candidates, heading into September and with the debates looming. The polling comes as Trump staged a dramatic meeting with the Mexican president and has made his positions on immigration front-and-center in the public debate; some of the new polls captured the day of the meeting.

The polls also came before the FBI released a summary of its interview with Clinton in which she said she couldn’t remember some briefings because of a concussion she had suffered in 2012.

Clinton enjoyed a post Democratic Convention bounce that grew her lead and erased a brief Trump lead in polling averages earlier in the summer.

Here’s what you need to know:


CNN/ORC

CANDIDATE VOTE
Trump/td>

45%
Clinton 43%

The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone September 1 through 4 and has a margin of error at plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

In this poll, Stein gets 2 percent and Johnson has 7 percent. CNN says the poll shows that independent voters are giving Trump the lead (although it’s in the margin of error, meaning the candidates are virtually tied).


Investor’s Business Daily

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 44%
Trump 43%

The Investor’s Business Daily poll has Trump and Clinton “virtually” tied. That’s because Clinton leads by 1 percent in the poll, but that’s in the margin of error of +/‐3.4 percentage points. The poll looked at likely voters from August 26 to September 1.

If you include Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Clinton and Trump are literally tied with 39 percent each. Johnson has 12 percent and Stein has 3 percent.


Fox News

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 48%
Trump 42%

Fox News says its most recent poll shows Clinton with a lead, but she’s slipped from the last poll. Furthermore, if you add in Johnson and Stein, it erodes Clinton’s lead, as Trump leads with independents, Fox News found.

In a four-way matchup, Clinton has 41 percent, Trump has 39 percent, Johnson has 9 percent, and Stein has 4 percent, found the poll, which Fox said was conducted of registered voters from August 28 to August 30 and has a margin of error of three percentage points.


LA Times/USC

CANDIDATE VOTE
Trump 44%
Clinton 43.3%

The USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Daybreak Poll conducts daily tracking of the presidential race. It finds a slight lead by Trump on September 2 and also shows an erosion in Clinton’s support.


IPSOS/Reuters

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 40%
Trump 39%

The IPSOS/Reuters poll also shows the race virtually tied. The pollster says that Trump has gained more support from Republicans, helping him to close the gap with Clinton. Among registered voters, Clinton does better, and her lead grows to 5 percent; in a four-way matchup, Clinton has 40 percent, Trump has 38 percent, Johnson has 6 percent, and Stein has 2 percent, the poll says.

The poll was conducted of likely voters from August 25 to 29 and has a credibility interval of 2.5 percentage points for all adults.


YouGov/Economist

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 42%
Trump 37%

The YouGov/Economist poll shows Clinton with a bigger lead against Trump than some other recent polls. The poll was conducted August 27 through August 29 and has a margin of error of 4.1 percent.

The poll also shows Johnson with 7 percent and Stein with 3 percent.


Public Policy Polling

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 42%
Trump 37%

The Public Policy Polling or PPP poll found a more stable race (the site is considered liberal leaning). It also polled black voters about whether they preferred Trump to the bubonic plague; they preferred the bubonic plague.

In this poll, Johnson had 6 percent, Stein had 4 percent, and Evan McMullin had 1 percent. The poll was conducted August 26 to August 28.


Rasmussen

CANDIDATE VOTE
Trump 40%
Clinton 39%

The Rasmussen poll shows Trump with a lead in the margin of error. Johnson was at 7 percent, and Stein was at 3 percent.

The poll was conducted on August 29 to August 30, 2016 and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.


USA Today/Suffolk

CANDIDATE VOTE
Clinton 48%
Trump 41%

The USA Today/Suffolk poll showed a much larger lead for Clinton than other polls. Johnson had 9 percent, and Stein had 3 percent.

The poll was conducted on August 24 to 29, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.


20 Comments

20 Comments

marry

Mrs. Clinton you say you’re for women’s rights but you have stayed with a man that has been abusing you for years ! Why Hillary have you stayed with Bill you know he doesn’t love you say you are for women but you allowed Bill to Disrespect you and to disrespect women that held his confidence how can you say your for women Hillary when you have allowed your husband to abuse you , when will The abuse stop ? Mrs. Clinton you must be strong you must be unwavering please mrs. Clinton be strong not weak

Shaniqua

I agree with Mary, Clinton should not be weak at all she should stand up for women’s rights , besides why should Hillary take the abuse from Bill. Bill’s nothing but a fat pig and Mary’s not judging she’s explaining the facts and judging from your statement you sound like a big man that slap women around and probably think you’re so much better than they are ,and that’s all I gotta say about that and Hillary Clinton shouldn’t be weak she should be strong and that’s what this country needs not a weak woman but a strong president and besides if love Hillary he wouldn’t have cheated on her.

Barbara Lee Bragg

Give me a BREAK. WTF. I think this country has gone to the dogs or stupid people with no vision of any education. What difference does it make if she stays with Bill Clinton or not? Jesus. Trump has screwed so many women it is off the Richter scale. Not to mention he has three wives none of which he has been faith ful too. MARRY you are an IDIOT> But then I think most of the USA are complete fools.

Anonymous

If you think that Hilliary Clinton is a better choice than Donald Trump,

Mr

Marry, I am sorry, but Hilary honoring her vows for better or worse in the eyes of God has nothing to do with her standing up for women’s rights. You go ahead and believe Trump is for all people which includes poor, white middle class as well as minorities. You know what gets me about America. If they could find any candidate that promises an America that leaves out minorities, making the majority believe that they will do better if minorities are left out or put out of America. It’s a sad world. Hilary isn’t perfect, but you guys all know she is not a racist and has fought hard for equal rights for all Americans, women, blacks, and minorities. So let’s just call it what it is!!! I remember Louisiana putting Jindal in office to hurt the minorities and it turned on them because the majority whites suffered at his hand and they couldn’t wait to get him out. Remember, minorities have had it hard most of their lives so they will survive when politicians don’t keep their promises or aim to hurt them, but as we know most majority doesn’t do very well when times get hard. So keep believing Trump is your guy and keep knocking Hilary for staying with a cheating husband that you only know of from his presidential scandal!!!

ArcticFrost

Mr. – Whereas I absolutely agree Clinton is not a racist, (nor do I think she’s an idiot for staying with Bill, I don’t comprehend how “Marry” sees that as relevant to ANYTHING) she’s certainly no supporter of minorities. At least not this year. How come when minorities in Louisana needed her or her supposed “Clinton Foundation” on the ground during their flooding she was too busy getting millions in donations. Why not donate some of that to the Red Cross. Better yet, if the Clinton Foundation is so charitable how come they didn’t apply a tiny amount from their billions to action on the ground in Louisana? She isn’t fighting for anything anymore besides power and money, did you not see the facism at the Democratic Convention? Absolute power corrupts absolutely, my friend, and this election the establishment is giving her absolute power. Before you try and vilify me, I’m an undecided voter (a Clinton supporter before the facist DNC) that weaves back and forth between Johnson and Trump. The only reason I ever lean towards Trump is when one of you high n mighty Democrats call me a racist for not agreeing with every thought you have. It causes me to think getting rid of the establishment and its hate speech is more important than keeping Trump out of office. He killed the Republican Party ( I LOVE that!) and every time I get dissed by a Democrat my blood boils and I hope he kills your party too. Then we can impeach him in the first six months in office.

Ed

The Democrats have had a long relationship with the kkk Senator Byrd a great friend and mentor of Hillary’swas a leader in the kkk and he ran on segregation history shows the Democrats voting against minorities well into the sixties and seventies the only thing I see their policies doing is giving minorities just enough money to get by and keep them down I voted straight Democrat until Bill Clinton signed the north American free trade act that’s when I started to pay attention to politics I watched as the Democrats and some Republicans mostly democrats make trade agreements that favored other countries than America that could not possibly help the blue collar worker I was taught that the Democrats favored us and they fought for our rights as blue collar worker’s. But how can we compete with Mexico where they get paid 50 dollars a month or China where they make 4 dollars a week we enjoy 20 or 30 dollars an hour we can’t compete but company after company can move to these other countries and make a killing while more and more minoritiesand white blue collar worker’s go from unemployment benefits to welfare because we don’t have job’s to replace the one’s that we are losing too unfair trade agreements and then they say we need 15 dollars an hour for entry level jobs that was filled with high school and college kids now people are trying to make a living on these jobs because Bill Clinton sold us out! And that’s when the economy that Regan got going started to stumble Bush said he was seeing signs of a recession when Gore was fighting for office and Greenspan dropped the interest rates like he recommended and when he took office he gave us a tax credit to boost the economy but that’s all he did and Obama has done nothing to help he has caused racial tension to increase and says that the unemployment rate is low but of course it is because welfare is going up but they don’t use that in the formula for the unemployment rate none of them do that’s how they manipulate the numbers to make themselves look good. Trump is right we need to get rid of nafta and all the other trade agreements that favored other countries if we want a strong economy or we better get used to an hourly wage that competes with other countries

trumptrain

There is so much wrong with what u just said it’s not even funny and it’s 3 am and I’ve gotta work all I gotta say is the people who use God to defend Hillary and keep listening to mainstream media are gonna be the ones who keep running this country into the ground Hillary is atheist and is still with her husband because it’s a “political marriage” she said this herself do ur research n quit quoting the biased media

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