2016 Presidential Polls: Who Leads in Battleground States?
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2016 Presidential Polls: Who Leads in Battleground States?

This combination of file photos shows Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton(L)on June 15, 2016 and presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on June 13, 2016.  / AFP / dsk        (Photo credit should read DSK/AFP/Getty Images)

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. (Getty)

In several recent national polls, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were virtually tied, erasing Clinton’s post-convention bounce.

However, what do the battleground state polls show? After all, the election will come down to the electoral college (where forecasting sites predict Clinton is still winning).

RealClearPolitics lists the “battleground” states as Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. An NBC News poll showed Clinton and Trump tied in four of those states: Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire and Arizona, representing a general tightening of the race.

What do recent polling averages show?

As of September 15, 2016, Trump was ahead in one of those states; Clinton was ahead in six; and the candidates were in a virtual tie (within the margin for error) in seven. Getting a lot of attention on September 14: A new Bloomberg poll out of Ohio showing Trump with a 5 percent lead in that key swing state.

Many of the state battleground polls show that – as with the national polls – the race is narrowing into almost a dead heat. As polls started to come in encompassing the period of Clinton’s September 11 medical episode, they showed positive news for Trump in several states, including Ohio, Florida, and Nevada, which are key states to win the presidency, as the race narrowed more.

The first two national polls to come out that include September 11 as part of the period tested show Trump leading by 3 percent in the LA Times USC daily tracking poll and Clinton leading by 4. However, the latter poll, by NBC News/SurveyMonkey, contained concerning signs for Clinton as it shows a narrowing compared to previously and erosion in support for her among independents. The NBC poll is conducted online. A CBS News/New York Times poll conducted September 9 through September 13 gives Clinton a 2 point lead.

A CNN/ORC poll conducted September 7-12 showed Trump leading by 5 points in Ohio and leading by 3 among likely voters in Florida (Clinton led by 1 point with registered voters in Florida).

US Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton waves to the press as she leaves her daughter's apartment building after resting on September 11, 2016 in New York. Clinton departed from a remembrance ceremony on the 15th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks after feeling "overheated," but was later doing "much better," her campaign said. (Getty)

US Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton waves to the press as she leaves her daughter’s apartment building after resting on September 11, 2016 in New York. (Getty)

Politico’s swing state polling average, which weights polling averages based on the state’s impact on the electoral college, has Clinton leading 45.2 to 39.7 percent, although it includes polls back in July. 270toWin has a battleground state map and has Clinton leading in the electoral college.

Fivethirtyeight says Florida, Ohio and Nevada have voted for the president in every election since 1996, but makes the case that Pennsylvania could be decisive. RealClearPolitics touts the importance of Florida.

Here’s what the battleground polling shows in each state on September 15 (the polls were mostly conducted from August 19 through September 12):


Arizona: Virtual Tie

The RealClearPolitics polling average has Trump up 1.6 percent in Arizona (in the margin for error though of most polls). Trump has won three of the last five polls in Arizona.

However, the most recent poll, conducted September 6 to 8, showed Trump only ahead by 1 point, within the margin for error.


Colorado – Clinton Lead

Clinton has a comfortable lead in Colorado – 9.7 percent on average.

Clinton has won the last four polls in Colorado, with margins ranging from 5 to 14 percentage points.


Florida – Virtual Tie

Trump is up in Florida by an average .07 percent, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling average.

The last six polls in Florida – from August 19 through September 9 – showed a very tight race between the two candidates. Two of those polls (JMC Analytics and Florida Atlantic University) show Trump leading; three show Clinton leading (CBS News/You Gov, PPP, and Mason-Dixon), but in almost all cases the margin is so close as to be a virtual tie when considering the margin for error. In one recent poll, the candidates tied (Quinnipiac).

In the two most recent Florida polls, Trump led by 4 percentage points (just outside the margin for error) in a JMC Analytics poll taken September 7 and 8, and he led by 4 percentage points in a CNN/ORC poll taken September 7 through September 12.

Clinton led by 2 points (within the margin for error) in a CBS News/You Gov poll taken September 7 through September 9.


Georgia – Virtual Tie

Trump is ahead an average 2.0 percent in the polling average for Georgia, which is a virtual dead heat.

He’s won three of the last four polls there (by 3 points, 4 and 1) and tied in the fourth.


Iowa – Virtual Tie

Trump is ahead in Iowa, by an average of 0.8 percentage points.

He won two of the last four polls in Iowa, tied in a third, and Clinton was ahead by 3 percentage points in the fourth. Trump won the last poll in Iowa, by Emerson, by 5 points.


Michigan – Clinton Lead

Clinton is doing well in Michigan, where she leads on average by 5.6 percent, and has won the last three polls by fairly comfortable, albeit single-digit, margins.


Missouri – Trump Lead

Trump has a solid lead in Missouri, with an average 3 percent spread, said RealClearPolitics.

Trump led by 9 points in the most recent Remington poll, which was conducted September 1 through September 2. The other two most recent polls in Missouri showed a much tighter race that was a virtual tie, though.


New Hampshire – Clinton Lead

Clinton is up an average 5 percentage points in New Hampshire, RealClearPolitics says, but the race is tightening.

Clinton won the last three polls in New Hampshire, but the most recent poll showed her with only a 1 percent lead, which is in the margin for error. That poll, by NBC, Wall Street Journal and Marist, was conducted September 6 through 8.


Nevada – Virtual Tie

In Nevada, Clinton is up 0.8 percent on average.

A Monmouth poll taken September 11 through September 13 showed Trump leading in Nevada by 2 points.

Before that, Clinton had won the last four polls in Nevada; however, she won by only 1 to 2 percentage points in each, which is in the margin for error. That means Nevada’s a virtual tie with Trump gaining recently.


North Carolina – Virtual Tie

In North Carolina, Clinton is up by 0.6 percent, a virtual dead heat.

A new Civitas poll taken September 11 and 12 shows the race in North Carolina is tied.

Before that, Trump had won two of the last four polls, and Clinton has won two.


Ohio – Virtual Tie

In Ohio, Trump is up 0.6 percent in the polling average; the Bloomberg poll, as noted, has Trump up 5. However, Clinton was leading 7 percent in the most recent poll before that one from CBS News/You Gov.

A CNN/ORC poll taken September 7 through September 12 showed Trump leading 4 points in Ohio.

The polls before those showed the race in Ohio to be a dead heat. Trump was up 1 percent in a Quinnipiac poll (which is in the margin for error) and an Emerson poll had the race a tie.


Pennsylvania – Clinton Lead

Clinton has a healthier lead in Pennsylvania than in other battleground states. The RealClearPolitics polling average has her up 6.2 percent.

Clinton has won the last five polls in Pennsylvania, with margins ranging from 3 to 8 percent. The race has tightened slightly though.


Virginia – Clinton Lead

Clinton has a comfortable lead in Virginia, leading on average 3.7 percent and winning the last three polls (although two of the most recent only showed her up by 1 and 2 percent, in the margin of error).


Wisconsin – Clinton Lead

Clinton’s ahead 5.3 percent on average in Wisconsin. The last three polls all showed Clinton ahead by 3 to 8 percentage points.

78 Comments

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78 Comments

Joan Harry

Clinton is for the blacks and Muslims not For The Veterans.Trump is for all veterns that is not getting any help from the President and the government.What is Obama and Clinton doing nothing but eating with the Muslims and they are being the Muslims and Blacks into our country and that there will be a world war 3 and if all you people tha voted for Clinton had half the mind you would do the right thing and vote for Trump and do you all know that Bill Clinton is Hilerys cousin and they are married and have children together I guess they say incest is the best according to Bill and Hilery Clinton

the President of the United States and our Government.What is Obama and Clinton founf nothing but eating the Moslums food and bring the Bl

Aimee Nobile

I am for Trump and you post even offends me! Trump is for ALL Americans even those of us in the Basket of Deplorables!

Cuban

As he spoke one of those BASKET OF DEPLORABLES was beating up a attendee who opposed TRUMP. So you all say that Trump is not politically correct and that is ok, but god forgive the other party is not politically correct!!!! One word come to mind IDIOT and that is the true description not BASKET OF DEPLORABLES.

chas

The media blocks out when Trump supporters are attacked. It has happened all over the country

GN

If you want to talk about incest check Donald Trump. He has the most unusual relationship that a father and daughter share. Well, he did say he would date her. So do not get your information mixed.

KarlaKarla

Want to talk about unusual…Hillary is a closet lesbian, Slick Willy is a sexist and rape-happy philanderer, and Chelsea isn’t even Bill’s kid. But the best part of it all is…the jokes on America
.

Cuban

WOW, how many wives has Donald Trump had? Talk about a great Christian man, Hippocrates….. I wonder who is the mother of all his kids, can keep up who on first or second maybe is third, oh what the hell; I give up.

Erick

Trump could give two shits for the military. Come back to reality. What does he need military for? He knows more than all of them already anyway. Trump cares about giving big tax breaks to himself and his buddies. There is a reason he wont release his tax returns and it has nothing to do with an audit. By the way, you sound like a Fox watching piece of trailer trash. You don’t even form complete sentences. And guess what guys, the majority of Americans actually do find fascists, racists and bigots, DEPLORABLE!

Anonymous

Have some brains america we have so maney refugees coming into our country from places that hate us and everything we stand for. Hillary wants to increase that number by millions. Ask yurself are we looking for another 9/11 tragedy or even worse. Because i dont know about any of you but i love my life my family, friends,military and this country to see it blown up by people who clearly will use our own forces and people to assist them for the destruction of our nation. Dont you want to stay free and have security in this nation and in your lives. If not go head vote for Hillary

Anonymous

Amen. Clinton equals destruction for our country and if you can’t see it then you are all blind. Trump may be blunt but he truly cares about our liberties freedom and this great country our military men and women fight to protect. God bless us all for this country is going to hell is we allow Clinton in office.

Anonymous

really, is that why he took that veteran’s Purple Heart and made fun a veteran who paid the ultimate sacrifice for this country just because he was a Muslim. May fun of a person with a disability. Says he knows more than our generals. gave an interview that he feels like he has sacrificed a lot in his life. really, more than our veterans, single moms, single dads, people working 60 to 80 hours a week in order to survive this cruel world. not saying Clinton is the right choice or for this country, but here is my feelings. If Trump wins, he will be impeached within 6 months or have us in a war. be careful what you wish for

Anonymous2

You are obviously intelligent, rational, and insightful, qualities which are unfortunately utterly lost on the people to whom you address your comments. God bless us all… This country is in trouble.

Cuban

IDIOT- what level of education you have? Eating with the Muslims, really!! ISIS is on the run loosing ground everyday what about that, let me see that was likely Bush from behind the seeing attacking them; wrong it was OBAMA got it. Blacks are part of this country let me point out the our GREAT PRESIDENT REPUBLICAN ABRAHAM LINCOLN fought for equality for all AMERICAN. Now blacks who won that freedom under a REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT ABRAHAM LINCOLN are being belittle by idiot supporting a bigger IDIOT TRUMP.

I’m a Republican who will vote for Hilary and live in the wonderful state of FLORIDA, so kiss Florida good bye as it will go blue……

Will

What an idiot you are. Blacks and Muslims are Americans. You say Trump is for veterans, yeah right, what about his phony donations to veterans. Not to mention his phony university. I am not worried at all. Clinton still wins in a landslide. She is going to eat him alive at the debates. Then the world will see what we democrats already know, that Trump is an idiot and has no clue what he is doing. Hillary 2016🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

D Chump

That is why he played sports in school,but couldn’t serve the country in the service.because of knee problems ..why do you people listen to his bullsh..! The man makes fun of people, takes money on a Trump University scam, I hope you don’t rely much on social security as Trump will cut benefits and virtually add more to the homeless situation…he thinks Japan and S Korea should have their own bombs when there are already too many countries with bombs, he ”knows more than the generals do”.what a ‘scammer’ believe him if you wish,he is all rhetoric and full of hyperboles, and after awhile hyperboles become lies, in fact he lies so much that he doesn’t even realize he’s doing it! He is the modern day P T Barnum!

GT

Your writing is horrendous, learn to spell properly. Note: America does not belong to WHITE people. It is a country of tolerance that accepts all races of ppl. You sound extremely racist and it’s time to stop with the conspiracy theories. Base your comments on actual facts and stop trying to make things up just for the sake of it. It adds nothing to your foolish support of Trump. Will be glad when Trump loses and people like you go back to wherever it is you came from.

Norma Feuerbacher

THAT IS NOT HILLARY CLINTON LEAVING HER DAUGHTER’S APARTMENT….DOES EVEN LOOK LIKE HER…..I GUESS THE DUMOCRATES THINK THIS OLD WOMAN, (MEANING ME) HAS VISION PROBLEMS…MY VISION IS NEAR PERFECT…IT IS GOING TO TAKE MORE THAN OVER WEIGHT BODY DOUBLE TO FOOL ME….

joetoronto

It’s pretty amazing not only how they expect us to believe it, but even moreso how the mainstream media completely ignores it. That woman is at least 50 lbs lighter than Hillary.

Neal Cabiness

No only dumb ones support Hillary this education you speak of is indoctrination to liberalism of which to many have fallen for

Gage Morse

I am not stupid or dumb and am a really good industrial economist, I support Trump. Be careful unless you would like to chat about the long-term and ruinous economics of progressive liberalism

Anonymous

Norma maybe you should increase your medication, forget the instructions,take the whole bottle…

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