On the heels of Donald’s Trump’s difficult week, a lot of people are wondering: How has all of the controversy affected Trump’s polling?
On a national scale, Hillary Clinton has widened her lead over Trump. RealClearPolitics’ polling average says Clinton now has an average 6.7 percent lead, outside the margin of error and up from a virtual tie a month ago. The polls encompass the period from October 3 to October 12.
The Billy Bush tapes that plunged Trump into controversy over lewd comments he made about woman were publicized on October 7. The second presidential debate was October 9.
However, the election will be decided by the Electoral College. That brings us to a critical question: What do the latest battleground polls show?
Some of the latest battleground state polls capture the period of time after the Bush tapes and the second debate. They show that Clinton has widened her lead in some battleground states, but in other critical states, such as Florida and Ohio, the race remains a virtual tie or just outside of it, keeping Trump in striking distance.
However, polling has not yet captured the more recent fallout over a string of accusations women have lodged against Trump, allegations which he has fervently denied.
Here’s what you need to know:
Florida: Opinion Savvy
In the most recent polling, Florida remains a tight race. The Opinion Savvy poll has the race still in the margin for error. It was conducted on October 10 and 11 – after the debate and Bush tapes release.
When asked who won the second presidential debate, 47.7 said Clinton and 43.6 said Trump.
RealClearPolitics polling average has Clinton leading Florida by 2.7 percent, although the polling average stretches back to September 27.
Trump leads by 1 point in one of the two latest Ohio polls, which is in the margin for error, meaning the poll has the race virtually tied in this key swing state. The poll was conducted October 10-12.
However, a second Ohio poll conducted over the same time frame by Emerson shows Clinton with a 2 percent lead. That’s still in the margin for error. Thus, the most recent Ohio polls show the race there virtually tied.
The RealClearPolitics polling average for Oho stretches back to October 1 and has Clinton up 1.6 percent.
Clinton has a comfortable lead in Pennsylvania. This most recent poll was conducted October 7-11. Sixty percent of voters said the Billy Bush tapes bothered them in this poll.
The RealClearPolitics average has Clinton up an average 8.7 percent, from September 28-October 11.
New Hampshire – Boston Globe/Suffolk
The most recent New Hampshire poll shows Clinton with a small lead that is in the margin for error. However, this poll was conducted from October 3-5, meaning it was before the Billy Bush tapes. Thus, polling out of New Hampshire is dated.
The RealClearPolitics polling average for New Hampshire has Hillary Clinton up 6.0 but runs from September 17-October 5.
North Carolina: NBC/WSJ/Marist
Clinton leads Trump by 4 points in North Carolina in this most recent North Carolina poll, which was conducted October 10-12. That’s just outside the margin for error.
A second North Carolina poll, Suffolk, conducted over the same time frame has Clinton at 45% and Trump at 43%, inside the margin for error.
A third poll by Emerson, also conducted over the same time frame, found Clinton leading Trump in North Carolina by 46% to 42%, barely outside the margin for error.
Thus, North Carolina remains a tight race, but Clinton has some momentum there and a slight edge.
Iowa – Des Moines Register
Trump led in the most recent Des Moines Register poll, but it was conducted October 3-6, before the Billy Bush tapes and debate. His margin was just outside the margin for error.
Similarly, the most recent battleground poll in Nevada shows the race a literal tie, but it was conducted October 2-4 before the Billy Bush tapes and second debate.
The most recent polling in Colorado had the race as a virtual tie but, as with Nevada, it’s dated and was conducted October 3-4.
Although Wisconsin has been trending Clinton for some time, the polls had tightened somewhat before the Billy Bush tapes. The Marquette University poll conducted October 6-9 (in the midst of Bush tape fall out but before the second presidential debate) shows that Clinton has widened her lead.
There was a fascinating trend within the poll; Trump’s numbers cratered in the part of the poll conducted after news of the Bush tapes broke.
The most recent poll in Virginia, Emerson, was conducted October 10-12, after the Bush tapes and second debate. It shows Clinton leading, but within the margin for error. That’s actually an improvement for Trump compared to the most recent previous polls in that state.
Read more about the polls in Spanish at AhoraMismo.com:
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