Donald Trump will have to overcome unlikely odds to win the presidential election, according to recent election forecasts.
While the latest poll numbers show Clinton’s lead over Trump has slightly dropped, it’s too soon to say the presidential race is tightening, according to FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver.
“The modest gains Trump has made are partly offset by time running off the clock, and the number of undecided voters declining,” Silver noted.
With less than two weeks remaining until the Nov. 8 election, a Trump comeback would be rare, but not impossible. That’s in large part due to the number of undecided voters. Although the number is declining, it is still fairly high for this late in the election cycle.
However, early voting is showing some signs of strength for Hillary Clinton that matches most recent polling.
States only report early voting by party affiliation and not actual vote tallies, however voter registration gives Democrats the early edge.
As the Associated Press reports, 13.4 million voters have already cast their ballots and strong early-voting turnout by registered Democrats shows Clinton has the advantage in critical battleground states, as well as signs of strength in traditionally Republican states.
Clinton is showing strength in Florida and North Carolina, states that are necessary for Trump to win the presidency. The real estate mogul’s path to the White House is nearly severed if he loses either.
While early voting results give limited information, some analysts say the early vote turnout among Democrats bodes well for Clinton.
“If current early vote trends hold, it’s a real possibility that Clinton can sweep a majority of swing states including Florida,” Scott Tranter, co-founder of the Republican data analytics firm Optimus told the AP.
Here’s a look at the latest forecast trends.
How Forecasts Compare
NYT Upshot: Clinton 92%, Trump 8%
The New York Times’ Upshot elections model predicts Hillary Clinton has a high probability of winning the election.
Based on the latest state and national polls, Clinton has a 92 percent chance of winning the presidency compared to Trump’s 8 percent.
To put it in sports terms, Upshot states Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an NFL kicker misses a 31-yard field goal.
Since Oct. 17 the Upshot model has shown Clinton has held a 90 percent chance or higher of winning the election.
The Upshot model also shows Clinton with a likely 213 electoral votes compared to Trump’s likely 97.
FiveThirtyEight: Clinton 81.2%, Trump 18.7% (Polls-Plus)
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight forecasts have consistently shown Clinton is highly favored to win on Nov. 8. While those odds have been pretty steady over the past week or two, Clinton is slightly down from Monday’s forecast.
Their polls-plus forecast shows Trump has a 18.7 percent chance, which is an increase from Monday which put him at 15.9 percent. Clinton held an 84 percent chance on Monday, and now stands at 81.2 percent. The polls-plus forecast takes into account the polls, economy and historical data to make a prediction.
The polls-plus model gives Trump the highest chance of winning among all election forecasts. This model indicates a Trump presidency is more than twice as likely as Upshot suggests. As Silver points out, historically, there’s been a strong correlation between the number of undecided and third-party voters, and polling volatility, which the polls-plus model takes into account.
Clinton has a slightly higher chance of winning according to the polls-only forecast, which projects she has an 83.8 percent chance of winning.
FiveThirtyEight’s Nowcast, which incorporates new polls very quickly, shows the Democratic nominee having an 83.4 percent chance of winning if the election were to be held today.
PredictWise: Clinton 90%, Trump 10%
In addition to polling-based models from FiveThirtyEight, there is the PredictWise model, which uses information from betting markets to make a prediction.
As of Thursday afternoon, PredictWise shows Clinton has a 90 percent probability of winning the election. Their model has given Clinton a 90 percent chance or higher of winning since Oct. 13.
Daily Kos: Clinton 95%, Trump 5%
Daily Kos shows Clinton currently has a 95 percent chance of winning the presidency. In a simulated electoral votes projection, Clinton has 334 compared to Trump’s 204. Their projection, which gives Clinton the highest likelihood of winning takes into account current polling data.
How States Have Shifted
Both candidates are strongly vying for Florida’s 29 electoral votes, which are necessary for a Trump victory.
Clinton currently holds the lead in four of the six polls by as much as four points. According to the RealClear Politics poll average, the Democratic nominee holds a 1.6-point lead in the critical battleground state.
Clinton held three rallies in Florida this week, while Trump also made a swing through the state with five rallies including stops in Sanford and Tallahassee on Tuesday.
Both campaigns have been focusing much of their efforts on Florida, and North Carolina. Clinton will make a stop in North Carolina on Thursday with First Lady Michelle Obama.
According to the Real Clear Politics average of statewide polls, Clinton holds a 2-point lead over Trump in North Carolina, a state that 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney won.
Clinton’s chances in Arizona, a traditionally Republican state, have also been on the rise according to an average of four recent statewide polls. While OH Predictive Insights shows Clinton and Trump deadlocked in Arizona, Clinton currently holds a 1.5-point lead in the Real Clear Politics average.
The fact that Trump is defending states that should be reliably red could work to Clinton’s advantage.
If Democrats in Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Colorado and Arizona are casting votes for Clinton then it is virtually impossible for Trump to win.
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