With just one week left to go until the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are quite close in the polls, but a few pieces of data in particular are looking good for the Democratic candidate.
As of November 2nd, Real Clear Politics’ polling average has Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton by 0.8 percentage points in Florida. That is a shift from this time last week, when Clinton was ahead of Trump in the state by an average of 2.4 percentage points.
But the latest poll that’s gaining a significant amount of attention is from William & Mary College, and it has Clinton ahead of Trump in Florida by eight points, 48 percent to 40 percent. Most surprisingly, though, that poll has Clinton winning 28 percent of Florida’s Republican early voters. On the other hand, Donald Trump is winning just six percent of Democratic early voters. Clinton is also winning early voters overall, with 55 percent of early voters saying they voted for Hillary Clinton and 43 percent saying they voted for Donald Trump. Among those who have not yet voted, though, this poll showed the race to be much tighter: 43 percent of these voters back Donald Trump, and 42 percent of them back Hillary Clinton.
Although this poll is certainly an outlier, particularly with its eight point Clinton statewide lead, it’s not the first time we’ve seen data showing many Republicans picking the Democratic nominee. And on PredictWise, a website that aims to predict the election results, Clinton’s chances of winning Florida shot up from 53 percent to 60 percent immediately after this poll was released.
Another recent poll garnering a lot of attention, particularly from Democrats, is one from Saint Leo University released on October 28th. It has Hillary Clinton up by double digits, ahead of Trump by 13 points, 50 percent to 37 percent.
Aside from these two outlier polls, the rest find the race to be more of a dead heat. One of the most recent from ABC News/The Washington Post has Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton by one point. This is the first time since May that Trump has been ahead of Clinton in this particular poll. It was conducted from October 27th through October 30th; the news that the FBI would be looking into emails that may be relevant to the Hillary Clinton investigation broke on October 28th.
Another poll favorable to Trump is from The LA Times/USC Tracking. This one has Trump ahead of Clinton by three points, 46.9 to 43.3. This time last week, that same poll had Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump by 0.9 percentage points.
In a poll conducted on October 30th by Remington Research, Trump leads Clinton by four points, 48 percent to 44 percent. In that poll, though, four percent of voters said they were undecided, while another two percent said they’d be voting for Gary Johnson and two percent said they’d vote for someone else. Backing up the idea of Florida’s Republican voters potentially moving towards Hillary Clinton, 19 percent of those who told Remington they’d be voting for Clinton identified as Republicans (although 21 percent of those backing Donald Trump identified as Democrats).
Finally, a recent poll from NBC News/Marist conducted on October 25th and October 26th again shows a tight race, but with Hillary Clinton maintaining a lead of one point, 45 percent to 44 percent.
Heading into Election Day, it seems that this may be yet another race where it all comes down to Florida. If Donald Trump does not win Florida’s 29 electoral votes, he will not become president. The vast majority of election forecasts predict that Clinton will wind up winning the state, though some are more confident than others. FiveThirtyEight has Clinton at a 50.6 percent chance of winning Florida, while The New York Times’ The Upshot has her at 67 percent, The Huffington Post has her at 94 percent, and PredictWise has her at 60 percent.