Possible outcome #1: Clinton 297 Trump 241. Clinton wins. We will start here, although multiple of the next slides also have Trump victories. This map gives each candidate every state for which he or she currently leads in RealClearPolitics polling averages, even if that lead is in the margin for error. That includes the 2nd Congressional District in Maine. FiveThirtyEight has been studying all of the polls out of the 2nd Congressional District, and forecasts that Trump is most likely to win that District as he has led in most polls there (but not all). You can see their analysis here and the RealClearPolitics polling here. Maine is a rare state in that it gives some of its electors out by Congressional District. This map is no sure thing for Clinton. One far from sure thing: Notice that this map gives Clinton Florida. That state is a dead heat (but she leads by 1 percent in the RealClearPolitics averages so we put it in her column for the sake of this exercise's consistency). The latest 2016 presidential polls have tightened fairly dramatically in the past week, with Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton now deadlocked in a series of key battleground states, and Trump trying to expand the electoral math possibilities by campaigning in historically blue states like Minnesota, Virginia, and Michigan. Let's start our exercise with this map because it shows what the election would look like if Clinton and Trump won each state in the battlegrounds that he or she is leading in the polling averages as of November 6, even if the lead is in the margin of error. Multiple states are virtually deadlocked, meaning one candidate or the other has a lead, but it's under 3%. They both have pathways to win the election in the electoral college. Before you get to the battleground states, she starts in a stronger position. However, they both have realistic pathways to the White House. A week ago, before the polls tightened, the scenarios for Trump looked dimmer. Now they look possible, although election forecasting sites are still predicting a Clinton victory in November. Here's what battleground polling shows as of Sunday, November 6, 2016, just two days before the election: According to RealClearPolitics, Battleground states where the race is a virtual tie (a candidate leads by 3% or less) (8): Florida, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa. Battleground states Trump leads (1): Arizona. Battleground states Clinton leads (5): Michigan, Virginia, Wisconsin, Maine, New Mexico. (This map was made using the RealClearPolitics database)
Using 2016 latest presidential polls as a guide, here are 9 plausible election outcomes in Clinton vs. Trump with electoral college maps.