The latest polls from Iowa show that Donald Trump continues to hold a lead over Hillary Clinton.
Iowa is one of the few battleground states where Trump has consistently been ahead of Clinton since the beginning of September. Even after The Washington Post released a tape of Trump talking about sexually assaulting women, and after over a dozen women accused Trump of assaulting them, Trump held a lead of about five points in the state. He had his biggest advantage towards the end of September, right before the first presidential debate; on September 23rd, Trump was ahead of Hillary Clinton in Iowa by 6.3 points in Real Clear Politics’ polling average.
As of November 4th, Trump is ahead of Clinton by an average of 2.7 percentage points in Iowa’s polls. This is actually an even larger lead than Barack Obama had over Mitt Romney in 2012. Going into the 2012 election, Obama was ahead of Mitt Romney by 2.4 percentage points in Real Clear Politics’ Iowa polling average. He ended up winning the state by a margin of 5.8 points.
Early voting in Iowa is also looking good for Trump, as there has been a significant decline in Democratic turnout since 2012 while turnout is way up in some of the state’s most conservative cities.
Here are the latest Clinton vs. Trump polls from Iowa.
Emerson: Trump Leads by Three Points
The latest Iowa poll to be released comes from Emerson, and it has Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by three points. The poll was conducted from November 1st through November 3rd by speaking to 700 likely voters. The margin of error is 3.6 percentage points.
Gary Johnson earned five percent of the vote, Jill Stein earned four percent, and five percent of voters remained undecided. Trump leads by the same margin as he did in Emerson’s previous poll, which was conducted at the end of September. Clinton has climbed two points since then, mainly due to Gary Johnson and Jill Stein supporters deciding they will vote for her instead.
Iowa is one of the few states where Hillary Clinton has a much higher unfavorable rating than Donald Trump. Trump’s net favorability in this Iowa poll is -4, but Hillary Clinton’s is -28.
Also, Trump’s support among women is a bit higher in Iowa than it is in many other battleground states. Among female voters polled, 42 percent said they support Donald Trump compared to 44 percent who said they support Hillary Clinton. Among men polled, 45 percent are supporting Donald Trump and 41 percent are supporting Hillary Clinton.
Quinnipiac: Trump and Trump Tied
In the latest poll from Quinnipiac, though, Trump is not doing as well, as he is tied with Hillary Clinton. This poll was conducted by speaking to 791 likely voters from October 20th through October 26th. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.
Four percent of voters picked Gary Johnson and one percent picked Jill Stein. However, in a head-to-head matchup, Trump beats Clinton by one point, 47 percent to 46 percent.
Clinton holds a substantial lead among likely voters, which makes sense considering Democrats tend to vote early far more than Republicans do. Of those polled who had already voted, 61 percent said they voted for Clinton, while 27 percent said they voted for Trump.
Contradicting the conclusion of the Emerson poll, this survey found that Donald Trump is more disliked among Iowans than Hillary Clinton. Trump’s unfavorable rating here is 59 percent, while Clinton’s is 55 percent.
Independent voters are split between the two candidates, with 40 percent picking Clinton and 40 percent picking Trump. But both Clinton and Trump have secured the same percentage of voters in their own party, as 88 percent of Republicans said they’ll vote for Trump and 88 percent of Democrats said they’ll vote for Clinton.
Des Moines Register: Trump Ahead by Four Points
The Des Moines Register’s poll, which was conducted a few days before the leaked Access Hollywood tape, has Trump with a four point lead over Clinton. The poll was conducted from October 3rd through October 6th by speaking to 642 likely voters. The margin of error is 3.9 percentage points.
Six percent of voters said they’re voting for Gary Johnson, while two percent said they’re voting for Jill Stein.
This poll made it clear that a majority of Iowans feel they cannot trust Hillary Clinton. Fifty-two percent of those polled said that they are bothered by questions about her trustworthiness. Specifically, 53 percent said they are bothered by her use of a private email server while she was secretary of state, and 52 percent said they are bothered by how she dealt with the 2012 Benghazi terrorist attack.
But many Iowa voters dislike aspects of Trump’s behavior, too. Fifty-three percent of those polled said Trump’s mocking of a disabled reporter bothers them a lot, and 21 percent said it bothers them a little. Also, 48 percent said they are bothered a lot by Trump’s treatment of women, and 16 percent said they are bothered a little. But a plurality of voters, 45 percent, said they aren’t bothered at all by the fact that Trump has not released his tax returns.
Loras: Trump and Clinton Tied
Finally, a poll from Loras once again has Trump and Clinton statistically tied, with Trump having a very slight lead of less than one percent. This poll was conducted from September 20th through September 22nd by speaking to 491 likely voters. The margin of error is 4.4 percentage points.
Nine percent of those polled said they would vote for Gary Johnson, while 1.2 percent said they would vote for Jill Stein. In a head-to-head matchup, Trump and Clinton are tied 42 percent to 42 percent.
Among those who picked Donald Trump, a plurality of voters said they’re voting for him mainly because they don’t like Hillary Clinton, not because they like Donald Trump. Forty-six percent of Trump voters said they’re mainly opposing Clinton with their choice, while 41.7 percent said they’re mainly supporting Trump. On the other hand, 57.2 percent of Clinton backers said they’re primarily backing Clinton, while 35.6 percent said they’re primarily opposing Trump.
Even though most voters polled were settled on a candidate, 57.6 percent of them said they are “very dissatisfied” with both of the choices.
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