Democrat Hillary Clinton is holding fast to a four-point lead over Republican Donald Trump with less than 48 hours to go before Americans head to the polls to pick their next president, according to the final poll of the campaign from NBC News and The Wall Street Journal, released on Sunday.
While Clinton owes her lead in the poll to a number of combined factors, chief among them what appears to be her decisive advantage among women voters.
Among all “likely” voters, Clinton tops Trump with 44 percent support, to just 40 for the New York real estate mogul. Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, a former governor of New Mexico, garnered six percent while Green Party nominee Jill Stein sits on two percent of the prospective vote.
In a one-on-one race, Clinton’s lead expands slightly, to five points. She beats Trump 48-43 in the poll, a five-point advantage, when respondents were asked to choose only between the Democrat and the Republican, leaving out Stein and Johnson.
But Clinton’s lead among women is considerably larger. The former Secretary of State who if elected would become the 45th president and the first woman ever to hold the high office, leads the women’s vote by 15 percentage points, 53 to 38.
Trump, on the other hand, holds a narrower lead among men, with 47 percent of male voters in the NBC/WSJ poll saying that they plan to vote for Trump, against 42 percent who say they will vote for Clinton.
Scroll through and read all of the numbers from the new poll in the document below.
However, a competing “final” poll also released Sunday from the online magazine Politico and the research firm Morning Consult shows Clinton with a considerably smaller lead among women — just six points, with not even half of all women voters in the poll saying they are willing to commit to a Clinton vote.
Clinton leads among women in the Politico/Morning Consult poll, 47 points to 41 over Trump.
Overall, the Politico/Morning Consult poll shows Clinton holding a three-point lead over Trump with two days to go, 45-42.
The two polls showing Clinton winning the vote among women line up with the findings of the research firm TargetSmart, which analyzed early voting conducted up through Friday, November 4. The TargetSmart study found that nearly 40 million early voters had turned in ballots by that date — and that nearly 56 percent of them were women.
Using a statistical model, TargetSmart concluded that Clinton was likely to be winning among all early voters by 8.9 percentage points over Trump — 47.5 to 38.6, a lead that given the findings about turnout among women Clinton almost certainly owes to the early votes of women.