With four days left to go until Election Day, Donald Trump is currently ahead of Hillary Clinton in Ohio.
In Real Clear Politics’ polling average, Trump currently leads Clinton by 2.7 percentage points. This is a significant shift from the middle of October; on October 15th, Clinton led Trump in Ohio by an average of 1.7 percentage points. Trump was ahead of Clinton in the state for most of September, only for Clinton to overtake him in the aftermath of the leaked Access Hollywood tape and of over a dozen women coming forward to accuse Donald Trump of sexual assault. Trump has now regained the advantage he had in Ohio before this all took place.
Trump’s current lead in Ohio is about the same as Barack Obama’s was prior to the 2012 election. Heading into the Election Day 2012, Obama was ahead of Mitt Romney on Real Clear Politics by an average of 2.9 percentage points. He ended up winning Ohio by a margin of three percent.
This indicates that Trump really does have a pathway to the presidency, however narrow it may be. No Republican has ever won the White House without also winning Ohio, so being behind in this state so close to the election would be disastrous for the Trump campaign. Hillary Clinton can reach 270 Electoral College votes without Ohio, but it’s difficult to see a scenario where Trump loses it and still wins the election. Democrats are currently ahead in Ohio’s early voting, but their lead is much smaller than it was in 2012, small enough that Trump can easily overtake Clinton on November 8th.
Here are some of the most recent Ohio polls.
Quinnipiac: Trump Ahead by Three Points
The latest Quinnipiac poll has Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton by three points. This is an increase from Quinnipiac’s previous survey released on October 17; at that time, Trump and Clinton were tied. This new poll was conducted from October 27th through November 1st by speaking to 589 likely voters. The margin of error is 4.0 percentage points.
Five percent of those polled said they plan to vote for Gary Johnson, while two percent said they would vote for Jill Stein.
Trump appears to have gained back some support from women in Ohio, as 44 percent of female voters in the state said they’d vote for Trump while 44 percent said they’d vote for Clinton.
Great news for the Trump campaign is the fact that the Republican candidate is currently winning among Ohio’s independent voters, 48 percent to Hillary Clinton’s 30 percent. Meanwhile, both candidates have the support of the overwhelming majority of their party, with Donald Trump winning 88 percent of Republicans and Hillary Clinton winning 89 percent of Democrats.
Remington Research: Trump Ahead by Five Points
The latest poll from Remington Research also looks great for Trump, as it has him ahead of Hillary Clinton by five points. The poll was conducted on October 30th by speaking to 1187 likely voters. The margin of error is 2.8 percentage points.
Three percent of those polled chose Gary Johnson, while one percent chose someone else and five percent said they were still undecided.
In this poll, Trump is once again winning among those who are not registered with any political party, ahead of Clinton 48 percent to 37 percent. Clinton, meanwhile, is winning the majority of young voters, with 58 percent of those between the ages of 18 and 29 saying they’re voting for her. Donald Trump has the support of the majority of voters between the ages of 40 and 49, in this poll winning 52 percent of them.
Remington’s survey also shows a split between male and female voters, although it’s not as significant as it has been in some other polls. Among women, 48 percent say they’re voting for Hillary Clinton, while 44 percent say they’re voting for Trump. Among men, 52 percent say they’re voting for Donald Trump, while 39 percent say they’re voting for Hillary Clinton.
Emerson: Trump and Clinton Tied
The best poll for Hillary Clinton to come out recently is from Emerson, as this one has the two candidates tied. This poll was conducted on October 26th and October 27th by speaking to 800 likely voters. The margin of error is 3.4 percentage points.
Six percent of those polled said they’d be voting for Gary Johnson, one percent said they’d be voting for Jill Stein, and three percent said they are still undecided.
Both candidates are viewed very unfavorably in Ohio, but Trump’s unfavorable rating is slightly higher. Sixty percent of those polled said they have an unfavorable view of Donald Trump, while 56 percent said the same of Hillary Clinton. Just 37 percent of Ohio voters have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump, and just 41 percent of them have a favorable view of Hillary Clnton.
Trafalgar Group: Trump Ahead by Five Points
A poll from Trafalgar Group gives Trump another strong lead of five points, and this one was conducted before the news that the FBI would be looking into new emails that may or may not be relevant to the Hillary Clinton e-mail server investigation. The poll was conducted by speaking to 1150 likely voters between October 24th through October 26th. The margin of error is 2.9 percentage points.
About two percent of those polled said they’d vote for Gary Johnson, while nearly five percent either chose another candidate or said they were undecided.
When Ohio voters were asked what candidate they believe their neighbor is voting for, the majority of participants – 55 percent – said Donald Trump. Among voters ages 18 to 25, Clinton is winning 53 percent of the vote, while among voters ages 46 to 55, Trump is also winning 53 percent of the vote.
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