Will Hurricane Harvey Hit New Orleans, Louisiana?

National Hurricane Center This is the probable path of the storm center as of Friday midnight.

Hurricane Harvey is expected to make landfall in Corpus Christi, Texas, but could it reach New Orleans or other parts of Louisiana?

There’s a risk that it could cause heavy rain, although it’s by no means certain, and, reports NBC News, the biggest concern is that New Orleans is ill-prepared if it does happen. “New Orleans is facing the biggest threat to public safety since Katrina ravaged the city 12 years ago,” NBC News reported. “With a large number of pumps and turbines out of service, it is not clear if the city is ready for Hurricane Harvey, and the city is studying emergency evacuation plans.”

Here is a current radar report for New Orleans, as well as a current weather forecast. Reports Nola.com, as of Friday, “The metro New Orleans area is expected to get 4 to 6 inches of rain through next week from the storm.”

National Weather Service

“Harvey is forecast to bring torrential rains and dangerous storm surge that have the potential to create a life threatening flooding situation starting Friday,” The National Weather Service reports of the danger to the country.

According to The New Orleans Advocate, there are concerns that, if the hurricane’s track “shifts a bit,” after its Texas landfall, the “storm might move toward Louisiana.”

“Hurricane Harvey track shifts a bit; after Texas landfall, storm might move toward Louisiana,” The Advocate reports. In a 4 p.m. August 24 advisory, the National Hurricane Center wrote that forecasting models “have trended toward showing Harvey moving slowly eastward” toward Louisiana next week after hitting Texas first, “but it’s too early to know if the center will remain over land or re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.”

The National Hurricane Center

The governor has declared a state of emergency for Louisiana due to Hurricane Harvey as a “precautionary measure, over concerns about flooding and the hurricane possibly moving toward Louisiana after it makes landfall in Texas,” reports Nola.com.

According to Nola.com, “The storm is expected to arrive in Texas Saturday, with rain starting to fall in Louisiana Sunday, according to the governor’s staff. Southwest and central Louisiana are the most vulnerable to flooding because of the storm, but the whole state should be on alert.”

As for New Orleans specifically, current forecasts only predict 4 to 6 inches of rain there and the current path doesn’t cause “additional concerns” for New Orleans, reported Nola.com. The governor said that it’s not clear whether the storm will strike Louisiana, but concerns are centered around whether New Orleans would be prepared if it did, according to the newspaper.

According to The Houston Chronicle, Hurricane Harvey is poised to be “the first major hurricane to threaten the coast in more than a decade.”

The National Weather Service has a detailed updated forecast for New Orleans that includes windspeeds and many other data points.

You can check hourly forecasts for New Orleans here.

hurricane harvey wind

Hurricane Harvey projected wind arrival times.

Texas is expected to get the biggest hit from the storm.

According to CNN, Hurricane Harvey “is forecast to become a Category 3 hurricane with winds of at least 111 mph by the time it hits the middle Texas coast late Friday or early Saturday…After hitting Corpus Christi, the storm is expected to stall over the state, forecasters say.”

The National Hurricane Center reports that hurricane force winds are described as “one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph” and tropical storm force winds are “one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph.”

According to the Houston Chronicle, the storm’s path is “is similar to that of Tropical Storm Allison,” which, in Harris County, Texas “left 22 dead and 30,000 homeless, and caused more than $5 billion in property damages.”

You can see more updated radar reports here.

This page by the National Hurricane Center has a current map that tracks Hurricane Harvey’s path.

At 1 p.m. on August 24, “Harvey was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. It was about 335 miles southeast of Corpus Christi, and was moving north-northwest at 10 mph,” CNN reported.

hurricane harvey map

Hurricane Harvey rainfall projections.

The National Weather Service forecast for Friday in New Orleans reads: “A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.”

The forecast Saturday reads: “Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 88. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.”

The forecast Sunday reads: “Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 70%.”

Showers and thunderstorms are predicted for every day of the following week.

As noted, the more immediate concerns are in Texas.

According to ABC 13, on August 24, “A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to Matagorda. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of Matagorda to High Island Texas. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass.”

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