National Hurricane Center
Hurricane Maria is now a Category 1 hurricane and it appears to slowly be moving across the Atlantic in the direction of the U.S. coast. Some projections have the hurricane heading to Florida, but this far ahead it’s tough to predict exactly what the storm will do with accuracy. She might head in Florida’s general direction, or she might go out to sea. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Maria reaching the Leeward Islands by Monday night. By Wednesday, she could be hitting Puerto Rico as a Category 3, if current predictions are correct.
Here’s what we know about Maria’s forecast so far.
Right now, Maria has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. She’s located at 13.6 N, 56.9 W, moving WNW at 15 mph, with minimum central pressure of 994 MB.
Key Messages for Tropical Storm #Maria (11 am Sep. 17): t.co/FfWk54T4Sw
Florida doesn’t even have tropical storm warnings issued yet, because Maria is still so far out in the ocean.
Spaghetti models currently show the storm heading in the general direction of the United States. A few paths show it impacting Florida, but other paths show the storm’s more likely to hit the coast farther up north or possibly even go back out to sea. See more discussion about spaghetti models here.
Not panicking too much about a 240-hour model forecast, but… the east coast should keep an eye on #Maria for official updates this week
And some GFS models are showing a potential Florida hit:
But remember: it’s far too early to tell at this point.
Below is the full map showing Maria’s cone of uncertainty. As you can see, she’s still so far out that Miami and Florida itself aren’t even in the cone yet. If Maria’s path shifts north, as some are expecting, then she could miss Florida entirely. But if she continues east, Florida could be in her path. It’s just too soon to tell right now.
National Hurricane Center
If you’re not prepared with hurricane supplies, now would be the time to get them before there’s a big rush. Even if Maria bypasses Florida, it’s never a bad idea to have your supplies ready ahead of time just in case.
As the Miami Herald reported today, some early models show that Maria might move in Florida’s direction later this week or early next week. But this far in advance, hurricane predictions can end up being hundreds of miles off. The National Weather Service for Miami also advised residents that it’s just too early to tell:
8am: Tropical Storm Maria expected to become a hurricane later today. Too early to determine if there will be any impacts for South Florida.
Watch Heavy for more details about Maria’s progress and latest tracks.