Trudeau's tariffs will affect key Trump voting swing states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
It’s well known that President Donald Trump staged his 2016 victory in part by flipping three states that had gone Democratic in presidential elections for years: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. It’s also obvious that Florida was critically important to the Trump win. Thus, it’s interesting to look at Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s July 1, 2018 retaliatory tariffs through a political prism, as they appear poised to have a disproportionate impact on exactly those swing states as well as more solidly Trump-leaning Ohio, which is a state that almost always predicts the presidency.
On July 1, Trudeau will impose tariffs on billions of dollars in U.S. imports “in response to American levies on Canadian steel and aluminum that went into effect a month ago,” according to Bloomberg. The total in new taxes on U.S. goods, according to The Associated Press: $12.6 billion. Trump has threatened to impose new tariffs on automobiles in the increasing trade war with Canada, although he has not yet done so.
“This is the strongest trade action Canada has taken in the postwar era,” Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland said, according to The Globe and Mail.
The Toronto Star is calling it a “tariff counterpunch” and “Canada Day trade barrage” on products that include orange juice, whiskey, toilet paper, washing machines, and glue. Here’s the full list of products affected by the new tariffs from the website of the Canadian government.
Here’s what you need to know:
Some Key Swing States Will Likely Be Hit Hardest by the Trudeau Tariffs
GettyDonald Trump and Scott Walker
CTV, which is a prominent Canadian television network, has published a list of the states that are set to be hit hardest by the Trudeau tariffs due to the amount of goods they send to Canada. Although some of the states are blue states (like California and New York), Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania all make that list. They are as follows, according to CTV, which compiled a list based on the 2017 value of affected products sent to Canada:
Ohio — $1.3 billion
New York — $1.2 billion
Illinois — $1 billion
Wisconsin — $903 million
Pennsylvania — $761 million
Washington — $688 million
California — $635 million
Michigan — $573 million
Tennessee — $517 million
According to Reuters, the move is designed in part to pressure the president “by focusing on goods from states where his political allies hold sway.”
“In 2017, Canada imported nearly $4 billion worth of those goods from Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Illinois alone,” CTV News reported. “Ohio, the bellwether state that almost always determines who wins the presidency, is likely to be the hardest hit.”
Canada’s claim is that it’s targeting products with Canadian substitutes.
Iconic Wisconsin motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson recently announced it was moving some of its production overseas, although that was the result of new European tariffs.
Florida Orange Juice, Wisconsin Toilet Paper & Pennsylvania Ketchup Are Being Targeted
GettyPresident Donald Trump on September 14.
Although Florida does not make the above list, its orange juice industry will feel a hit. “Of the listed items, Canada imported almost $158 million in Florida orange juice in 2017; almost $200 million in coffee from Washington state; about $176 million worth of toilet paper from Wisconsin and Ohio combined; and $84 million worth of herbicides from Michigan,” reported CTV.
According to The Washington Post, Heinz ketchup produced in Pennsylvania will be hard hit by Trudeau’s new tariffs, and that has a long history dating back to Heinz closing a Canadian plant and costing hundreds of Canadian workers jobs. Bloomberg reports that Trudeau is visiting the Canadian town that once hosted that plant. The ketchup will get a 10 percent tariff on July 1, reported The Post, noting that Canadians are “aiming at politically sensitive states and products, including gherkin pickles, lawn mowers and toilet paper from Wisconsin.” The Post noted that Heinz ketchup is based in Pennsylvania but produces ketchup in Fremont, Ohio.
Paul Ryan & Mitch McConnell Represent Areas Being Targeted
GettySenate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
According to an article by The Associated Press, “many of the U.S. products were chosen for their political rather than economic impact.” The AP gives as an example the new tariffs slapped on yogurt, which comes almost entirely to Canada from a single Wisconsin plant, noting that this is House Speaker Paul Ryan’s state.
Similarly, whiskey is being hit, and GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell’s home state of Tennessee produces a lot of it.
The Canadian news site CTV added: “In Wisconsin, Ottawa’s countermeasures are set to target a broad range of other important exports shipped to Canada. They include handkerchiefs, paper towels, serviettes and tablecloths ($224 million), toilet paper ($84.5 million), mayonnaise, salad dressing and mixed condiments ($72 million) and upholstered wood-framed seats ($66 million).”
In addition, CTV noted that the tariffs are targeting states with leaders who’ve spoken out on trade, including Ryan and McConnell. Boats in Tennessee, Minnesota, and Illinois will also be affected, according to Bloomberg.