Trump vs. Biden 2020: Poll Shows Joe Biden Ahead

trump vs. biden

Getty Trump vs. Biden?

Trump vs. Biden? It’s still not clear whether that contest will ever happen, but a July 2018 poll shows Joe Biden winning over Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2020 match-up – by seven points.

There are many caveats to the poll, of course; Joe Biden, the former vice president, hasn’t officially said he’s running in 2020, although he’s certainly flirted with the notion publicly. It’s just one poll. The election is more than two years away. Neither candidate reached 50 percent support in the poll. And, of course, the presidential election polls were notoriously wrong on Trump in 2016.

However, the poll could help fuel talk of a Biden run or even help push him in that direction. You can read the poll in full here. It asked voters many other questions in addition to their preferences between Biden and Trump.

Here’s what you need to know:


Politico/Morning Consult [7/26/18 to 7/30/18]

Joe Biden 44%
Donald Trump 37%

The Politico/Morning Consult poll surveyed 1,993 registered voters. More of them supported Biden than supported Trump in the hypothetical contest.

However, it’s less clear whether Biden would be favored by Democratic primary voters (and, of course, that would depend on the competition, which remains unclear.) “Notably, 89 percent of Democrats say they would vote for a generic Democrat over Trump, but only 80 percent of Democrats say they prefer Biden over Trump,” said Morning Consult Managing Director Tyler Sinclair to Politico.

According to The Detroit Free Press, the poll shows that younger voters are more likely to support the Democrats than older voters.

Granted, most of the polls infamously called the 2016 presidential race wrong, forecasting a Hillary Clinton victory. Experts have given many reasons for that polling error; for example, they have argued that there was a phenomenon of “shy” Trump voters who were hesitant to tell pollsters they supported Trump but then voted for him in private because they felt it was considered socially unacceptable to support the Republican nominee.

Other reasons given for polling inaccuracy in 2016: A declining number of quality polls across the country; the closeness of the election; and the fact Trump prevailed in the electoral college but lost the popular vote. Will the polls be inaccurate on Trump again in 2020? That assumes pollsters learned nothing from the 2016 errors; however, due to the incendiary nature of current political discourse, it’s also possible the “shy voter” phenomenon could be even more exaggerated. Time will tell.

Other recent polls, however, have shown some warning signs for Republicans as they head into the midterm elections in November 2018; for example, two recent polls in the Wisconsin governor’s race show that Republican Scott Walker is up for a tough re-election fight, although his Democratic primary opponent hasn’t been selected yet, either.

You can see an analysis of why 2016 polls were inaccurate on Trump in most cases below. Trump has announced that he plans to run again in 2020. Of course, the conclusion of the Robert Mueller investigation into Trump’s campaign and Russia could also affect public opinion on Trump, adding to the uncertainty when trying to prognosticate the political future.


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