The Latest Kavanaugh Confirmation Odds [September 24]

christine blasey ford brett kavanaugh

Getty/Palo Alto University Christine Blasey Ford and Brett Kavanaugh

Brett Kavanaugh’s likelihood of being confirmed to the Supreme Court remained extremely high throughout the summer months and even through his confirmation hearings, despite his enduring several controversies related to lying under oath.
However, in the past few days his confirmation odds have taken a tumble on prediction markets like PredictIt, which now reflect a less than 50% likelihood of Kavanaugh being appointed.
Here’s what you need to know.

Various Political Prediction Markets Reflected a Nosedive for Confirmation Odds on Sunday

The online prediction market PredictIt gives Kavanaugh only about a 3 in 10 chance of being confirmed, in light of allegations made by Deborah Ramirez, a Yale classmate of Kavanaugh who told the New Yorker Kavanaugh exposed himself to her and forced her to touch his penis. 

Stock in the market for Kavanaugh receiving 49 or fewer votes — meaning that his nomination would fail — skyrocked Sunday in light of Ramirez’s allegation. 

Earlier this afternoon, stock in the market for 49 or fewer was below 40 percent. In other words, it went from 60-40 that he’d be confirmed to 70-30 that he won’t be. 

Similarly, the British betting exchange Smarkets reflected a drop in Kavanaugh’s confirmation likelihood from 96.2 percent to 71.9 percent as of Monday, September 17.

Kavanaugh’s Public Support Marks a Historic Low for Supreme Court Nominees, Per an NBC Poll

An NBC/Washington Post poll recently revealed that Kavanaugh is the least-liked Supreme Court nominee in 30 years, since Robert Bork in 1987. Bork was not confirmed to the Supreme Court.

In fact, no Supreme Court nominee with a negative net favorability (meaning that more people disapprove of the nomination than approve of it) has been appointed to the Supreme Court since 1987. Kavanaugh is currently at a -4 net favorability rating; put differently, 34 percent of those polled supported Kavanaugh’s nomination, and 38 percent disapproved of it, as of last Sunday.


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