The Latest Kavanaugh Confirmation Odds [September 27]

brett kavanaugh

Getty Judge Brett Kavanaugh.

Brett Kavanaugh’s likelihood of being confirmed to the Supreme Court remained extremely high throughout the summer months and even through his confirmation hearings, despite his enduring several controversies related to lying under oath.
However, in the past few days, his confirmation odds have taken a tumble on prediction markets like PredictIt, which now reflect a less than 40% likelihood of Kavanaugh being appointed.
Here’s what you need to know.

Various Political Prediction Markets Reflected a Nosedive for Confirmation Odds in the Last Week

The online prediction market PredictIt gives Kavanaugh only about a 20 percent chance of receiving the 51 votes necessary for confirmation, in light of Ford’s testimony in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee on Thursday. 

Stock in the market for Kavanaugh receiving 49 or fewer votes — meaning that his nomination would fail — skyrocked 12 percentage points to 61 percent, leading up to Ford’s hearing.

Similarly, the British betting exchange Smarkets reflected a drop in Kavanaugh’s confirmation likelihood from 96.2 percent to 71.9 percent as of Monday, September 17.

Kavanaugh’s Public Support Marks a Historic Low for Supreme Court Nominees, Per an NBC Poll

An NBC/Washington Post poll recently revealed that Kavanaugh is the least-liked Supreme Court nominee in 30 years, since Robert Bork in 1987. Bork was not confirmed to the Supreme Court.

In fact, no Supreme Court nominee with a negative net favorability (meaning that more people disapprove of the nomination than approve of it) has been appointed to the Supreme Court since 1987. Kavanaugh is currently at a -4 net favorability rating; put differently, 34 percent of those polled supported Kavanaugh’s nomination, and 38 percent disapproved of it, as of last Sunday.


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