The Latest Trump Impeachment Odds [September 11]

Trump Impeachment Odds

Getty Trump's impeachment odds have hovered in the forty-percent range for several months, and might increase in the coming months leading up to the midterms.

A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll revealed that Trump’s approval rating was just around 36 percent, while an IBD/TIPP poll reflected the same.

Trump’s marked drop in approval is not good news for Republicans as the 2018 midterms loom. If the Democratic party is able to win a majority of seats in the house, then impeachment for the President would start to look like a real possibility.

Here’s what you need to know about Trump’s latest odds of impeachment.

Trump Impeachment Odds Over the Last 90 Days

Trump impeachment odds

Trump’s likelihood of impeachment depends heavily on the outcome of the midterm elections.

The online prediction market PredictIt has Trump with just a 6 percent chance of being impeached in 2018, but a 46 percent chance of being impeached within his first term, an increase of 2 percentage points since September 7.

The chart above shows the market’s read on Trump’s impeachment chances over the past 90 days.

Likelihood That Democrats Take the House in the 2018 Midterms

Since there’s virtually no chance a Republican-held House of Representatives would vote to impeach Trump, impeachment odds hinge largely on whether the Democrats can retake the chamber in November’s elections. That’s a scenario that both betting markets and election forecasters view as likely.

FiveThirtyEight’s “classic” forecast gives the Democrats a seven in nine chances — 78 percent — of taking back the House.

Trump Tells Montana Crowd That Impeachment Will Be Their Fault If it Occurs

At a Montana rally on September 6, Trump told the crowd, “If it does happen, it’s your fault because you did not go out and vote. You didn’t go out to vote — that’s the only way it could happen. I’ll be the only president in history they’ll say: ‘What a job he’s done! By the way, we’re impeaching him.’”

Trump continued, “This election you aren’t just voting for a candidate. You’re voting for which party controls Congress.”

A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll revealed that 49% of people polled would support Congress if it initiated impeachment proceedings.

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