Trump’s marked drop in approval is not good news for Republicans as the 2018 midterms loom. If the Democratic party is able to win a majority of seats in the house, then impeachment for the President would start to look like a real possibility.
Here’s what you need to know about Trump’s latest odds of impeachment.
Trump Impeachment Odds Over the Last 90 Days
The online prediction market PredictIt has Trump with just a 6 percent chance of being impeached in 2018, but a 46 percent chance of being impeached within his first term, an increase of 2 percentage points since September 7.
The chart above shows the market’s read on Trump’s impeachment chances over the past 90 days.
Likelihood That Democrats Take the House in the 2018 Midterms
Since there’s virtually no chance a Republican-held House of Representatives would vote to impeach Trump, impeachment odds hinge largely on whether the Democrats can retake the chamber in November’s elections. That’s a scenario that both betting markets and election forecasters view as likely.
FiveThirtyEight’s “classic” forecast gives the Democrats a seven in nine chances — 78 percent — of taking back the House.
Trump Tells Montana Crowd That Impeachment Will Be Their Fault If it Occurs
At a Montana rally on September 6, Trump told the crowd, “If it does happen, it’s your fault because you did not go out and vote. You didn’t go out to vote — that’s the only way it could happen. I’ll be the only president in history they’ll say: ‘What a job he’s done! By the way, we’re impeaching him.’”
Trump continued, “This election you aren’t just voting for a candidate. You’re voting for which party controls Congress.”
A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll revealed that 49% of people polled would support Congress if it initiated impeachment proceedings.