Getty Brett Kavanaugh.
The Kavanaugh vote could happen as early as Saturday, and prediction markets are swinging wildly to reflect the changes and reveals made by senators regarding how they will vote while the hours tick down.
Here’s the latest news you need to know on the likelihood of a Kavanaugh appointment: both what the prediction markets are saying, as we draw closer to the vote, and what senators are saying to effect those markets.
Kavanaugh’s Odds of Appointment Have Steadily Creeped Up in the Last Week
A divided Senate is headed toward a critical procedural vote Friday morning on the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh
Via the online prediction market PredictIt, Kavanaugh has been given about an 81 percent chance of being the next Supreme Court justice.
However, those odds are vascillating wildly right now: between 11:40 and 11:45 EDT, the odds dropped down to 77 percent, then back to 81, then down to 80, then back again.
Updates for Friday, October 5: Joe Manchin Votes for a Cloture Vote, Lisa Murkowski Doesn’t
Of note: Lisa Murkowsk met with dozens of sexual assault survivors from her home state of Alaska yesterday afternoon.
The key undecided senators for the Kavanaugh vote are Joe Manchin (D-WV), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Susan Collins (R-ME), and Jeff Flake (R-AZ). Sen. Heidi Heitkamp was also a key undecided until earlier this week when she announced that she intended to vote no on Kavanaugh.
Here’s what you need to know about what’s happening with the Kavanaugh vote:
11:30 AM: Murkowski Says Kavanaugh Is Not the ‘Right Man For the Court’
Murkowski told reporters on Friday that none of this process has “been fair” and that she didn’t make up her mind until today, but that Kavanaugh, though a “good man,” is “not the right man for the court.”
12:00 PM: Flake Confirms He Will Vote Yes on Kavanaugh
Following the cloture vote, Sen. Jeff Flake confirmed to reporters that he would be voting yes on Kavanaugh, saying that it “wasn’t an easy decision” and that he fully supported the decisions of the other undecided senators, including Manchin and Murkowski. Of Murkowski, Flake said to reporters, “I think the world of her.”