With the midterm campaigns in the rearview mirror, the 2020 presidential election has taken center stage. President Donald Trump has already announced his intention to run for re-election and it remains to be seen if he will be challenged for the Republican nomination. The Democratic primary field is expected to be very crowded, featuring a number of old and new faces vying to win over the party’s young, diverse base. Whoever wins, the 2020 presidential race is going to be a wild ride.
President Trump is expected to be the Republican nominee, though Ohio Governor John Kasich, retiring Arizona Senator Jeff Flake, retiring Tennessee Senator Bob Corker, Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse, and 2012 presidential candidate Mitt Romney have been rumored as potential primary challengers, according to The Hill. Even if Trump does see a primary challenge, there is no indication that Republican voters are eager to see someone else in the White House. According to Gallup, Trump has an 88 percent approval rating among Republican voters.
Former Vice President Joe Biden has emerged as the early frontrunner on the Democratic side but it is very, very early and a crowded primary field may dampen his hopes. An October CNN poll gave an indication of how crowded the field may be as it featured 16 potential candidates. The list includes Biden, 2016 Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders, California Senator Kamala Harris, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, former Secretary of State John Kerry, former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke, former Attorney General Eric Holder, attorney Michael Avenatti, New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, Montana Governor Steve Bullock, and Maryland Rep. John Delaney. And those are only the ones included in the poll.
Here is what the early polling data tells us about what to expect in 2020:
CNN: Voters Say Republicans Should Renominate Trump
Republicans have largely embraced Trump and the betting market PredictIt gives Trump a 65 percent chance of being the Republican nominee in 2020. Second is Vice President Mike Pence, who PredictIt gives a 10 percent chance of being the nominee.
The CNN poll was conducted October 4-7, sampling 469 Republican and Republican-leaning voters.
|CANDIDATE||SHOULD BE NOMINEE%|
Democracy Corps: Voters Want Republican Party to Nominate Trump
The Democracy Corps poll was conducted by the Democratic Greenberg Research group July 19-26, sampling 2020 likely Republican primary voters.
|CANDIDATE||SHOULD BE NOMINEE%|
CNN: Republicans Say Trump Deserves to Be Reelected
The CNN poll was conducted November 2-5, 2017, sampling 1,021 Americans.
|TRUMP DESERVES REELECTION||GOP VOTER%|
Marist: John Kasich, Mike Pence Not In Position To Challenge Trump
The Marist poll was conducted August 8-12, 2017, sampling 361 Republican and Republican-leaning voters.
CNN: Joe Biden Is The Early Democratic Favorite
Polls this early usually do not predict the general election well but they give us a good idea of where the primary field stands. Biden is the early favorite, much in the way that Hillary Clinton led in 2016 before Bernie Sanders mounted a surprisingly strong challenge. PredictIt offers a different look at where the betting markets put the race. Kamala Harris leads the field at 21 percent, trailed by Bernie Sanders at 16, Elizabeth Warren at 14, and Joe Biden at 13.
The CNN poll was conducted October 4-7 among 464 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters.
Democracy Corps: Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders Neck-and-Neck
The Democracy Corps poll was conducted July 19-26 among 443 likely Democratic primary voters. The poll included former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, billionaire Democratic donor Tom Steyer (the guy who runs those Impeach Trump ads), and former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu.
|Someone Else/A Governor||4|
CNN: Trump Trails Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Oprah Winfrey in Head-to-Head Polls
The CNN poll was conducted January 14-18 among 913 registered voters.