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Elizabeth Warren Polls Show Her Trailing Biden, Sanders & O’Rourke

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Elizabeth Warren released a video December 31 announcing that she is forming a 2020 presidential exploratory committee. Warren says that America’s middle class is “under attack” from greedy corporations and politicians, and talked about her record of fighting to regulate big banks and corporations. Warren said that she was exploring a 2020 run for the presidency and vowed, “If we organize together, if we fight together, if we persist together, we can win. We can, and we will.” You can watch Warren’s video announcement here.

Warren has been hinting that she’s interested in a White House run for years. She’s often praised as a left-of-center leader and has won praise for her fight against banks and corporations. But the Massachusetts senator’s star may be fading. Recent polls show that Warren lags well behind other Democratic favorites like Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Beto O’Rourke.

Warren Placed Fourth in a Poll of Iowa Caucus-Goers

The Iowa caucus is a key test for any presidential candidate, and so it’s worth noting that Warren placed a dismal fourth in a recent poll of likely caucus-goers in the state. The Des Moines Register/CNN poll put former Vice President Joe Biden in first place, with Bernie Sanders in second place and rising star Beto O’Rourke coming in third place. Warren placed fourth, ahead of California Senator Kamala Harris and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker.

The poll asked respondents to list the candidate they’d like to see get the Democratic nomination for the presidency. 32 percent of those surveyed said they’d like Joe Biden to win the nomination. Another 19 percent picked Bernie Sanders, and 11 percent said that Beto O’Rourke was their top choice for the Democratic nomination. 8 percent of respondents said that Elizabeth Warren was their number one pick among Democrats.

Among Progressive Voters, Warren Ranked Far Below O’Rourke, Biden, & Sanders

The left-leaning group MoveOn.org did a poll of its membership in mid-December. Warren, a progressive, fared badly in the poll of progressive voters. She came in fifth, with only 6.4 percent of those surveyed saying that she’d be their top choice to win the Democratic nomination for the presidency in 2020. Beto O’Rourke was the top choice among those surveyed. Joe Biden came in a close second, with Bernie Sanders in third place. Kamala Harris, another progressive star, was ranked fourth in the poll.

Warren does similarly poorly in betting markets, where online bettors routinely rank her behind Beto O’Rourke, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris. On the day of her announcement, a time when analysts might have expected Warren to get a temporary bump, PredictIt bettors were still ranking Warren in fifth place. A bet that Warren would win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination was selling for just 11 cents on the morning of December 31, while a bet on front-runner O’Rourke was selling for 20 cents.

However, it’s worth noting that nearly a third of those polled (29 percent) said that either they haven’t decided yet who they want to back, or that they are backing a candidate not included in MoveOn’s poll. And in fact, MoveOn says its endorsement is still very much up for grabs. Ilya Sherman, executive director of MoveOn, told NBC that,

“While the race for the 2020 Democratic nomination for president remains wide open and MoveOn’s endorsement is up for grabs, MoveOn members and progressives across the country are clear: They’re looking for candidates who will rally voters around a progressive vision of building a country where every American can thrive — whether we’re white, black, or brown, rich or poor.”

Sheyman added, “We’ll be challenging prospective candidates to inspire us with big ideas in the months to come — including at a series of events in early voting states in early 2019.”

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