Map of Florida Shows Northern Shift in the Latest GFS & Euro Models

Hurricane Dorian's track

National Hurricane Center

A map of Florida has almost all computer models — including the GFS and the Euro — in agreement: Hurricane Dorian is going to turn north. The question remains, however, as to when. While there is still plenty of time for Dorian to change course (the storm could even head out to sea), the most likely scenario based on the hurricane’s current track has many Floridians hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.

Now, people living along the Atlantic coast from Florida to the Carolinas, need to be paying close attention to this storm.

As of Friday, August 30, Dorian was upgraded to a Category 4 hurricane. Dorian is currently located about 445 miles to the east of West Palm Beach, Florida, moving west-northwest at 12 mph. As predicted, the storm is starting to slow down its forward motion.

Both the GFS and the Euro models are showing Hurricane Dorian approaching Florida’s east coast on Tuesday, September 3. Both models keep Dorian from making landfall in Florida.

Here’s what you need to know:


The Latest Euro Model Suggests Dorian Won’t Make Landfall in Florida But Will Skirt the East Coast Instead

The latest Euro model run shows Dorian hugging the east coast of Florida and traveling north up the eastern seaboard. Without making landfall, it’s possible that Dorian could bring torrential downpours and very heavy winds to Georgia and on to the Carolinas.

The latest model seems to show Dorian stalling slightly over the Bahamas before breaking more north, never making landfall on Florida’s east coast at all.

It’s important to note that the Euro model has changed drastically over the past few days and this is only the latest run. It’s entirely possible that the next Euro release will show a different track — it could move Dorian more west or even further east into the Atlantic Ocean.

Meanwhile, the GFS track brings Dorian inland, making landfall somewhere around Cape Canaveral before making the trek north. You can see that map below.


A Good Amount of Rain Is Still Predicted for Florida’s East Coast but the Torrential Downpours Should Stay Over the Ocean

Hurricane Dorian projected rainfall

Dorian is expected to bring anywhere from 1 inch to 8 inches of rain all over the state of Florida. The least amount of rain is predicted in Florida’s panhandle and in the western areas of the state. However, a shift in Dorian’s track could change the rainfall totals in any given area.

Even if the GFS model pans out and Dorian stays closer to Florida’s east coast, the sheer size of the storm will bring rain to much of the state, even if it may not be heavy.

“Along the Florida coast, near and north of the eye, widespread power outages and coastal flooding are anticipated. Property damage may be dependent on the quality of the construction of buildings in the region, which is more stringent in Florida, when compared to other areas. After tracking dangerously close and possibly into Florida, a gradual curved path to the north and northeast is anticipated with heavy and excessive rainfall along the way,” Accuweather reports.

READ NEXT: See the Latest Euro & GFS Models & Florida Impact Here