Trump Impeachment & Re-Election Betting Odds Change After Pelosi Announcement

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Nancy Pelosi has just called for a formal impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump. This announcement increased the betting odds that Trump will be impeached, which then remained stable following the release of his not-verbatim transcript. However, many people still believe that Trump’s re-election odds are high along with the betting odds that he’ll stay in office. After the release of his not-verbatim-transcript, there was a slight uptick in odds that he’d remain in office.  Here are the latest updates on predictions and betting odds, including updates from Wednesday, September 25. Betting odds don’t necessarily translate to actual results, but they can provide insight into bettors’ current views on political situations.


PredictIt Shows a Spike in the Betting Odds of Trump Being Impeached

The odds that Trump will be impeached in his first term have been increasing ever since the Ukraine allegations surfaced. The price of a “yes” share on Predictit jumped to 58 cents after Pelosi’s announcement compared to 42 cents before her speech on Tuesday. This represents a 58 percent chance the House will vote on impeachment charges against Trump. This does not indicate the chance of removal, since removal requires a 2/3 Senate vote convicting Trump of the impeachment allegations.

As you can see in the PredictIt chart below, the price of Trump’s betting odds for being impeached increased significantly in just the last week.

PredictIt.org

Now compare that to the price change over the last 24 hours for Trump being impeached in his first term. You can see a steady increase. The 24-hour chart below marked the 24 hours leading up to Pelosi’s announcement and just after:

PredictIt.org

As of Wednesday, September 25, the price of a “yes” share was about the same at 58 cents, changing one cent up or down depending on when you check. To see the current betting odds, you can go to PredictIt here.

PredictIt


There Was a Drop in the Betting Odds that Trump Will Complete His Term following Pelosi’s Announcement

There are some interesting additional betting odds on PredictIt concerning Trump. One asks if Trump will be President at the end of 2019. Since the September 24 announcement by Nancy Pelosi, those betting odds have gone down, although the overall price is still high. The price of a “yes” share on Predictit is now recorded at 90 cents (although the chart showed the price being lower at certain times.) The chart shows that prices for a “yes” share were decreasing as compared to the past week. Here’s a look at the price over the last seven days, as of Tuesday, September 24 when Pelosi made her announcement:

PredictIt.org

It’s been more up-and-down if you look at the price of a “yes” share over the last 24 hours from the time of her announcement, though. The rules read: “Donald Trump shall be president of the United States at 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) on December 31, 2019. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2019 12:00 AM (ET)”

PredictIt

Interestingly, the betting odds had a slight upturn on PredictIt on Wednesday, September 25, with the price rising to 91 cents for a “yes” share. So it looks like those share prices are increasing a bit after Trump released the memorandum/non-verbatim transcript. Of course, one-cent changes can happen and may not indicate a lasting trend.

PreditIt

To see the current betting odds on whether Trump will remain President through 2019, you can go to PredictIt here.

A new prediction market asks how many articles of impeachment the House will pass against Trump by March 31. This one’s just getting started.


Still, Betting Odds Are Low that the Senate Will Convict Trump

A bigger one is whether or not the Senate will convict Trump on impeachment. This one is tougher because a conviction requires 2/3 Senate majority, which would require 20 Republican Senators to vote for impeachment.

So far on September 24, the “yes” price was 13 cents. That represents a 13 percent chance that he will be convicted by the Senate. Pretty low at this point. On September 25, those prices were still about the same following the release of the not-verbatim-transcript.

PredictIt.org

To see the current betting odds on whether Trump will be removed by the Senate, you can go to PredictIt here.


Odds Watch Has a Live Tracker

Meanwhile, Odds Watch has an interesting live tracker for betting odds regarding Trump from Betfair. It’s auto-generated periodically and shows the current percentage chance that Trump will leave office before the end of his first term. The betting odds were at a 20 percent chance on Betfair on September 24, following Pelosi’s announcement.

Odds Watch

But just a few minutes later, you can see that those odds were growing again.

Odds Watch

Interestingly,  on Wednesday, September 25, those odds that he would leave office had decreased slightly from the day before after the release of his not-verbatim-transcript of the phone call with the Ukrainian President.

 

Odds Watch

You can track the results live here.


OddsShark Said Trump’s Odds of Winning the Election Remained the Same Immediately after Pelosi’s Announcement & then Dipped Slightly Later

Meanwhile, OddsShark published Warren’s odds of winning the 2020 election as improving after the possibility of a Trump impeachment inquiry. Bovada showed Trump’s re-election odds moving from +105 to +110 after news of the whistleblower report surfaced. Warren’s odds, meanwhile, moved from +400 to +375. This was on September 23.

Immediately after Pelosi’s announcement, Trump’s odds remained at +110, OddsShark noted on September 24.

After Pelosi’s announcement, Trump’s odds were still at +110 of winning the election. Warren’s were +375, Biden’s were +550, and Bernie Sanders’ were +1100. Next was Andrew Yang at +1500.

Then on September 25, Trump’s odds dipped slightly to +120, which was a three-month low, OddsShark noted. This could change in the coming days, so it will be worth watching closely. Warren’s odds, meanwhile, improved on September 25 from +375 to +300, and Biden’s dipped from +550 to +600. Sanders’ odds dipped from +1100 to +1200, and Yang’s stayed the same. Buttigieg’s and Harris’s both stayed the same at +2500.

Interestingly, when it comes to PredictIt shares, some are saying that Pete Buttigieg would make a good bet.

They posit that with Trump impeachment odds increasing and Buttigieg trades for being the Democratic nominee being at a low 7 cents, he would make a strong risk/reward trade, as a Trump investigation might also hurt Joe Biden.

READ NEXT: Trump Impeachment Polls

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