Democratic Nominee Betting Odds Before the Debate: Warren Leads

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Elizabeth Warren continues to lead in betting odds for which Democratic nominee will win the nomination for the Presidential candidate. Going into the Democratic debates tonight, she maintains a steady lead in betting odds trackers, which could be a sign of increasing favorability. Here are the latest updates on predictions and betting odds for the Democratic nominees. Betting odds don’t necessarily translate to actual results, but they can provide insight into bettors’ current views on political situations.


Elizabeth Warren Has a Steady Betting Lead Going Into the Debates

Elizabeth Warren has a steady lead in betting odds among the Democratic nominees, according to PredictIt. “Yes” shares for her to win the Democratic nomination are priced at 46 cents. This represents that a 46 percent chance that she would win the Democratic nomination, according to bettors’ predictions. Of course, betting odds can and do frequently change. You can see the latest results on PredictIt here.

As you can see in the PredictIt chart below, she leads with Yes shares at 46 cents.

Joe Biden’s yes shares were priced at 20 cents. This is fairly steady. When we last reported in late September, his shares were at 21 cents. Andrew Yang’s yes shares are priced at 10 cents and Pete Buttigieg’s yes shares have risen slightly to 9 cents (from 6 cents in late September.) Currently, Bernie Sanders’ shares are priced at 7 cents, which is lower than his 10 cents that had him tied for third in late September.  Hillary Clinton is also at 7 cents (although Clinton is not running), Kamala Harris ist at 5 cents, and Tulsi Gabbard is at 4 cents.

Here are PredictIt’s rules for the Democratic Nominee betting odds:

The individual identified in the question shall win the 2020 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.

PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.

PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.”

Charts comparing Warren and the other candidates give you a better idea of how things have changed. In the past week, prices have been fairly steady for yes shares.

PredictIt

But a look at the last 90 days shows just how much Warren has shot up.

PredictIt

Everyone else has remained fairly steady, with Sanders dipping slightly.


OddsShark Also Places Warren in the Lead

OddsShark noted on October 8 that Warren’s odds to win the Democratic nomination had improved to minus-money for the first time this month.

According to these Bovada odds, Warren’s odds to win the Democratic nomination are at -110 to win the Democratic nomination on October 8, compared to +150 on September 24, +200 on the 12th and +175 on the 17th. Her odds of winning have been steadily growing.

Biden’s odds as of October 8 are +400, compared to +275 on September 24. Andrew Yang is now tied for third with +1000, a ranking that Pete Buttigieg also holds. Yang was fourth in late September and Sanders was third. Sanders is now fifth with +1200 odds. On September 24 he was at +650, then +800 on October 1. His odds have been dropping.

In overall 2020 Presidential odds to win the whole thing, Trump is still in the lead but slipping a bit, while Warren is gaining. Trump went from +110 to +120 from the 24th to 25th, and then was at +125 on October 8. Warren went from +375 to +300 in late September and is now at +250. Biden has been third. Interestingly, on August 27 Trump was heavily favored to win with -110, so he’s had a bit of a drop since then.

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