With Beto O’Rourke out of the race and Joe Biden facing a serious challenge from Elizabeth Warren as the Democratic Party’s front runner, all eyes are on the 2020 presidential polls in Iowa.
Who’s ahead? The poll getting all of the recent attention was conducted by the New York Times and Siena College and shows that Elizabeth Warren has taken the lead in the Iowa caucuses, with Bernie Sanders second, Pete Buttigieg surging, and Joe Biden fading. Iowa matters because it’s the first state where ballots will be cast in the 2020 presidential contest, albeit in a caucus.
The New York Times attributes Buttigieg’s surge to declining support for Biden, as Democratic voters hunt around for another candidate who is more of a centrist in their efforts to topple President Donald Trump. Trump has been battering Biden over his son’s ties to a company in Ukraine, although Trump’s own phone call with the Ukrainian president has sparked an impeachment inquiry. The Times also points out that voters seem to be casting around for a change agent, whereas Biden represents the past. The newspaper also found a significant age gap, with younger voters trending away from Biden and to the left wing of the party.
It’s the second recent poll out of Iowa to show Warren with a lead. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows her with a 5.3 percent lead in Iowa.
That’s just Iowa, though. A Harvard-Harris national poll released on Saturday November 2, 2019 showed Biden in the lead, with 33%, following by Sanders with 18%, Warren with 15%, Kamala Harris with 5% and Pete Buttigieg with 4%. Joe Biden still has an average 7.2 percent lead in the 2020 presidential polling average by RealClearPolitics. He’s led in the last 6 of the 7 national polls.
Winning Iowa is not the be all and end all, of course, although it does pare down the field. According to NPR, from 1976 through 2016, the Iowa caucuses were won by two Democrats who became president, Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter. Six of the Democratic party’s nominees won Iowa through January 2016. Hillary Clinton also won the Iowa caucuses but by a very slim margin.
Here’s a roundup of the latest polls out of Iowa, as of November 2, 2019:
New York Times/Siena College [10/25/19 to 10/30/19]
Iowa State University [10/18/19 to 10/22/19]
|Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard||2% each|
USA Today/Suffolk [10/16/19 to 10/18/19]
This post was updated to remove duplicate percentages for Buttigieg.