Bernie Sanders & Joe Biden Almost Tied in Democratic Nominee Betting Odds

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Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden are practically tied in betting odds for which Democratic nominee will win the nomination to be the Democrats’ Presidential candidate. With the Democratic debate happening soon on January 14, Sanders’ increasing favorability has caused him to nearly tie Biden on the odds listed on PredictIt. Meanwhile, Sanders surged ahead of Biden on ElectionBettingOdds.com. Here are the latest updates on predictions and betting odds for the Democratic nominees. Betting odds don’t necessarily translate to actual results, but they can provide insight into bettors’ current views on political situations.


Biden Has Decreased Slightly While Sanders Has Slightly Increased, Closing the Gap in Their Betting Odds on PredictIt

As of Sunday night, January 12, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders’ betting odds were winning the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination were separated by just two cents. The next highest, Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bloomberg, were tied at 11 cents, according to PredictIt.

“Yes” shares for Biden to win the Democratic nomination were priced at 37 cents. This represents a 37 percent chance that she would win the Democratic nomination, according to bettors’ predictions. Sanders’ “yes” shares were at 35 cents. Of course, betting odds can and do frequently change. You can see the latest results on PredictIt here.

PredictIt

When we last reported in mid-October, Elizabeth Warren was leading with yes shares at 46 cents and Biden’s were at a steady 20 cents. Prior to that, in September, his shares were at 21 cents. Andrew Yang has dropped from 10 cents in October to 5 cents today. Pete Buttigieg’s yes shares have remained roughly the same. Interestingly, Sanders’ shares were down at 7 cents, tied with Hillary Clinton, back in mid-October. Now he’s practically in the lead.

Here are PredictIt’s rules for the Democratic Nominee betting odds:

The individual identified in the question shall win the 2020 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.

PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.

PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.”

Charts comparing Warren, Biden, and Sanders over the last seven days give you a better idea of how things have changed. Biden has dropped slightly while Sanders’ yes shares have increased slightly, causing the two to come to nearly the same point.

PredictIt

A look at the last 90 days, provided by PredictIt, is even more revealing.

PredictIt

Warren’s price for a “yes” share has dropped sharply in the last 90 days, while both Biden and Sanders have been steadily rising over the same course of time.


Election Betting Odds Puts Sanders in the Lead

Meanwhile, Sanders has moved ahead of Biden on ElectionBettingOdds.com. Sanders is at 30.5 percent and Biden is at 28.4 percent according to odds places by bettors. Warren and Bloomberg are tied for third here at 11.2 percent. Buttigieg is in fifth at 6.7 percent. The odds here are compiled from Betfair and PredictIt.

If you look at the site’s chart showing the candidates’ changes since April (which is here), you can see that Sanders has had a recent surge, while Biden has been up and down on the chart.

Election Betting Odds places Sanders at second place for winning the U.S. presidency at 14.7 percent to Trump’s 52.1 percent.


OddsShark Places Biden in the Lead, But This Was Before News of Sanders’ Leading in Iowa

OddsShark last updated its numbers on January 2 as of the time of publication, so it doesn’t reflect the more recent news about Sanders’ leading in Iowa. At the time, OddsShark noted that Biden’s odds remained steady at +200 (and in first place), while Sanders’ odds had increased to second place at +350 and Warren was in third at +450. The author did not that this was the highest Sanders’ odds had been since they started tracking the odds in early September.

In overall 2020 Presidential odds to win the whole thing, Trump is still in the lead as of January 8. Trump was at -115, Biden was second at +400, and Sanders was third at +700.