With the impeachment trial well underway, the betting odds on whether President Donald Trump will be removed from office or re-elected in 2020 are changing. His betting odds for being removed are even lower than they were a few days ago, and he is still at the top for betting odds on who will win 2020. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders is now in second place for the 2020 win.
Here are the latest updates on predictions and betting odds, including updates from January 30, but they may change as the day progresses. Betting odds don’t necessarily translate to actual results, but they can provide insight into bettors’ current views on political situations.
PredictIt Shows a Spike & Then Drop in the Betting Odds of Trump Being Removed from Office
Betting odds spoked and then dropped that the Senate would actually convict Trump and remove him from office. A conviction requires 2/3 Senate majority, which would require 20 Republican Senators to vote for impeachment.
As of Thursday, January 30, the “yes” price was only 8 cents as of the time of publication.
That represents an 8 percent chance that he will be convicted and removed by the Senate. Pretty low at this point. In fact, this is a drop from the day before, which was 9 cents on January 29. Then for the two days prior to that, the price rose slightly to 11 cents for January 27 and January 28.
In fact, January 27 and 28 at 11 cents was the highest the betting odds have gotten for Trump being removed so far. Check out the graph for the last seven days.
Over the last 30 days, the odds are still overall lower, although not quite as low as the betting odds were back on January 10-12.
To see the current betting odds on whether Trump will be removed by the Senate, you can go to PredictIt here.
Betting Odds Still Favor Trump To Win the 2020 Election
Meanwhile, betting odds still favor Trump to win the 2020 election, according to PredictIt.
As of Thursday, January 30, the price for Trump winning was at 48 cents and the price for Bernie Sanders winning was 27 cents, followed by 17 cents for Joe Biden and 11 cents for Michael Bloomberg. That represents a 48 percent chance, according to bettors, that Trump will win the election, compared to a 27 percent chance for Sanders.
For the last seven days, prices have held fairly steady, with Sanders increasing slightly and Biden decreasing slightly.
Odds Watch Has a Live Betting Tracker Showing Low Odds that Trump Will Leave Office Early & High Odds of Winning 2020
Odds Watch has an interesting live tracker for betting odds regarding Trump from Betfair. It’s auto-generated and shows the current percentage chance that Trump will leave office before the end of his first term.
The betting odds were at a 20 percent chance on Betfair on September 24, following Pelosi’s announcement that they would start an impeachment inquiry. Interestingly, the betting odds have increasingly decreased over time. They had a slight spike in November and are actually lower now. The betting odds that he will leave office were at 14 percent on December 18. Now, as of January 30, they are even lower at 9 percent.
You can track the results live here. The odds are updated every 15 minutes or so.
As a comparison, OddsWatch currently has a 16 percent chance listed for Bernie Sanders winning the 2020 election, according to betting markets.
Trump, meanwhile, is listed at a 54 percent chance of winning 2020 according to bettors.
OddsShark Lists Trump as a Slight Favorite to Be Re-Elected
Meanwhile, OddsShark still lists Trump as the favorite for winning the election, even with impeachment trial ongoing. Bovada showed Trump’s re-election betting odds moving from +130 on November 21 to -105 on December 17, and now as of January 29 the odds are at -135 (or 57.45 percent).
Bernie Sanders now outranks Joe Biden for second place with +350 odds compared to Biden’s +550 odds.
Elizabeth Warren is now at +2500 odds, ranking in fifth place behind Michael Bloomberg. In November she had much better odds and topped the chart, right behind Trump, at her chance at being elected.
Even though she’s not running, Hillary Clinton’s odds are still at +5000 and higher than Amy Klobuchar’s odds or Tulsi Gabbard’s odds.