Today, all eyes are on Iowa as the state sets the stage for the rest of the 2020 Presidential election. Today, both the Republicans and Democrats are having caucuses in the state. But it is the Democrats’ caucus that people are keeping a close eye on. Although only 41 delegates are at stake, a win could still translate into a lot of momentum for whichever Democratic candidate walks away with the most delegates. Here are the latest updates on predictions and betting odds for which Democratic will win the caucus in Iowa, along with predictions for the nomination and the 2020 general election. Betting odds don’t necessarily translate to actual results, but they can provide insight into bettors’ current views on political situations.
PredictIt Shows Bernie Sanders Is Favored to Win the Iowa Caucus
As of Sunday, February 2, the “yes” price for Sanders’ winning the Iowa caucus was priced at 63 cents, according to PredictIt. The number rose even higher on February 3. On February 2, Joe Biden was second at 24 cents, followed by Pete Buttigieg at 10 cents and Elizabeth Warren at 7 cents.
That represents a 63 percent chance that Sanders will win the Iowa caucus, based on bettors’ predictions. In fact, Sanders has been the steady favorite for the last seven days.
A look at the last 30 days is more revealing. You can see Sanders’ odds increasing in the past month, while Buttigieg has decreased.
A look at the past 90 days is even more revealing, as you can see how Buttigieg and even Warren were once at the top and both have since fallen, while Sanders has slowly climbed significantly in betting odds. Biden, meanwhile, has climbed just a little.
Sanders’ lead extended even more on February 3, with 70 cents per yes share compared to Biden’s 22 cents.
Betting Odds Favor Sanders To Win the Nomination, But Still Favor Trump To Win the Election
Bettors are also favoring Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination, according to predictions on February 2. To see the latest results, which can frequently change, visit PredictIt’s page here. (On February 3, Sanders’ odds had risen to 45 cents per share and Biden’s were down to 26 cents.)
A yes share for Sanders is priced at 41 cents, compared to 28 cents for Biden in second place, and interestingly enough – 18 cents for Bloomberg at third place. Warren is priced at 7 cents and tied with Andrew Yang. Then Pete Buttigieg is priced at 6 cents.
Check out how much the predictions have changed over the past 90 days.
At one point, Warren lead the group, followed by Biden and Buttigieg. But Sanders has steadily climbed. Biden had a firm lead for most of the time, but he has just recently dropped in betting odds and Sanders has surpassed him. Yang has remained pretty steady all this time, while Bloomberg has climbed a bit.
But as far as the U.S. election itself, President Donald Trump is still favored in betting odds. By February 3, Sanders’ odds were up to 30 cents from the chart below, and Trump’s were the same.
A “yes” share for Trump winning is priced at 48 cents compared to a “yes” share for Sanders winning, which is priced at 27 cents. Next is Biden at 15 cents and then Bloomberg at 12 cents. Yang comes in fifth at 5 cents, favored over Warren and Buttigieg.
Odds Watch Has a Live Betting Tracker for the General Election
Odds Watch has an interesting live tracker for betting odds regarding who will win the general election from Betfair. It’s auto-generated and shows the current percentage chance that Trump will win, Sanders will win, and others.
OddsWatch has an 18 percent chance listed for Bernie Sanders winning the 2020 election, according to betting markets on February 2.
For Trump, the betting odds are 56 percent.
OddsShark Lists Trump as a Slight Favorite to Be Re-Elected & Sanders As the Favorite for the Iowa Win
Meanwhile, OddsShark still lists Trump as the favorite for winning the election as of January 29, even with impeachment trial ongoing. Bovada showed Trump’s re-election betting odds moving from +130 on November 21 to -105 on December 17, and at -135 (or 57.45 percent) for January 29. Bernie Sanders now outranks Joe Biden for second place with +350 odds compared to Biden’s +550 odds.
Elizabeth Warren is at +2500 odds, ranking in fifth place behind Michael Bloomberg. In November she had much better odds and topped the chart, right behind Trump, at her chance at being elected. Even though she’s not running, Hillary Clinton’s odds are still at +5000 and higher than Amy Klobuchar’s odds or Tulsi Gabbard’s odds.
As for who will get the Democratic nomination, OddsShark places Sanders as the heavy favorite in Iowa. Sanders leads at +160 as of January 29, followed by Biden at +185, Bloomberg at +500, and Buttigieg at +1400.
Election Betting Odds Puts Sanders in the Lead
Meanwhile, Sanders is ahead of Biden on ElectionBettingOdds.com. Sanders is at 37.7 percent as of February 2 and Biden is at 28.6 percent according to odds places by bettors. Bloomberg is third at 14.5 percent and Warren is fourth at 6.2 percent. The odds here are compiled from Betfair and PredictIt.
If you look at the site’s chart showing the candidates’ changes since April (which is here), you can see that Sanders has had a recent surge, while Biden has been up and down on the chart. You can also see that Warren had a surge that has since dissipated.
Election Betting Odds places Sanders at second place for winning the U.S. presidency at 17.3 percent to Trump’s 54.5 percent.