Getty Bernie Sanders
Today, all eyes are on New Hampshire as voters cast their ballots in the Democratic primary for the 2020 Presidential election. Tensions are high after what happened in Iowa. Here are the latest updates on predictions and betting odds for which Democratic will win the in New Hampshire, along with predictions for the nomination and the 2020 general election. Betting odds don’t necessarily translate to actual results, but they can provide insight into bettors’ current views on political situations.
PredictIt Shows Bernie Sanders Is Strongly Favored to Win in New Hampshire
As of Monday night, February 10, the “yes” price for Sanders’ winning the New Hampshire primary was priced at 83 cents, according to PredictIt. Pete Buttigieg was a distant second at 19 cents, followed by Amy Klobuchar at 3 cents, Joe Biden at 1 cent, and Elizabeth Warren at 1 cent.
PredictIt
That represents an 83 percent chance that Sanders will win the New Hampshire primary, based on bettors’ predictions. In fact, Sanders has been the steady favorite for the last seven days, with Buttigieg a steady second.
PredictIt
A look at the past 90 days is more revealing. Sanders did not start at the top, but he’s been climbing steadily. At one point Buttigieg was first but then dropped before spiking back up right around the Iowa caucus. The other candidates have been declining or staying stagnant.
PredictIt
In New Hampshire, 24 pledged delegates are at stake. The state has a total of 33 delegates. The 24 delegates are pledged based on the voting results in the primary, as long as a candidate gets at least 15 percent of the vote.
Sixteen district delegates are pledged proportionally based on primary results in the congressional districts, The Green Papers explains, and then eight are pledged based on the primary vote statewide (five at-large National Convention delegates and three pledged PLEOs.) On top of that, there are nine unpledged PLEOs (these are essentially superdelegates, but they don’t vote in the Democratic National Convention until the second ballot.) These unpledged delegates include five DNC members and four members of Congress (two Representatives and two Senators.)
Betting Odds Favor Sanders To Win the Nomination, But Still Favor Trump To Win the Election
Bettors are also still favoring Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination, according to predictions on February 10. To see the latest results, which can frequently change, visit PredictIt’s page here. (On February 3, Sanders’ odds were 45 cents per share and Biden’s were down to 26 cents. On February 10, Sanders’ odds were at 47 cents and Bloomberg had jumped to second at 29 cents, followed by Buttigieg at 13 cents.)
PredictIt
But as far as the U.S. election itself, President Donald Trump is still favored in betting odds. By February 3, Sanders’ odds were up to 30 cents from the chart below, and Trump’s were the same. By February 10, Sanders’ odds were at 29 cents and Trump’s were a little higher at 53 cents. Bloomberg rose above Joe Biden to third place.
A “yes” share for Trump winning is priced at 53 cents compared to a “yes” share for Sanders winning, which is priced at 29 cents. Next is Bloomberg at 16 cents, Buttigieg at 7 cents, Biden at 4 cents, and Klobuchar at 3 cents.
Odds Watch Has a Live Betting Tracker for the General Election
Odds Watch has an interesting live tracker for betting odds regarding who will win the general election from Betfair. It’s auto-generated and shows the current percentage chance that Trump will win, Sanders will win, and others.
OddsWatch has an 18 percent chance listed for Bernie Sanders winning the 2020 election, according to betting markets on February 2. On February 10, it was almost the same at 17 percent.
OddsWatch
For Trump, the betting odds were 56 percent on February 3 and just slightly higher at 59 percent on February 10.
OddsWatch
OddsShark Lists Trump as a Slight Favorite to Be Re-Elected & Sanders As the Favorite for the Iowa Win
Meanwhile, OddsShark still lists Trump as the favorite for winning the election as of February 9 following his State of the Union and acquittal. Bovada showed Trump’s re-election betting odds moving from +130 on November 21 to -105 on December 17, and at -135 (or 57.45 percent) for January 29. By February 4/5, his odds were at -140/-150.
Bernie Sanders now outranks Joe Biden for second place with +350 odds compared to Biden’s +550 odds. On February 4/5, Sanders was at +350/+425.
Elizabeth Warren was at +2500 odds, ranking in fifth place behind Michael Bloomberg on February 3. On February 10, she was all the way down to +3000 and in seventh behind Andrew Yang. In November she had much better odds and topped the chart, right behind Trump, at her chance at being elected.
Election Betting Odds Puts Sanders in the Lead
Meanwhile, Sanders is still ahead of other Democrats on ElectionBettingOdds.com. Sanders was at 37.7 percent as of February 2 and Biden was at 28.6 percent according to odds places by bettors. Bloomberg was third at 14.5 percent and Warren was fourth at 6.2 percent. The odds here are compiled from Betfair and PredictIt.
By February 10, things had changed slightly. Sanders was now at 38.6 percent and still in first place, followed by Bloomberg at 24.1 percent and then Buttigieg at 11.6 percent.
Election Betting Odds places Sanders at second place for winning the U.S. presidency at 16.3 percent to Trump’s 58.8 percent.