Trump vs. Biden: New Poll Shows Trump Leading in Battleground States

trump vs. biden

Getty Trump vs. Biden: A new battleground poll shows a Trump lead.

A poll conducted by CNN in May 2020 shows President Donald Trump leading Joe Biden by 7 percentage points in battleground states in the upcoming presidential election. The same poll shows Democrat Biden leading Republican Trump in a national survey of voters.

The poll interviewed voters in 15 battleground states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

The poll was conducted from May 7-May 10, 2020. You can see it in full here. According to the poll, voters were asked, “Suppose that the presidential election were being held today and you had to choose between Joe Biden as the Democratic Party’s candidate, and Donald Trump as the Republican Party’s candidate. Who would you be more likely to vote for?”

People were also asked: “As of today, do you lean more toward” either candidate. Those voters who were polled were defined as “battleground state respondents who are registered to vote.” The totals were the same for each question, but the gender and racial breakdown shifted in the second question. The poll shows a gender and racial gap, with more men and whites supporting Trump. Biden enjoyed a slight edge with women, but they were fairly evenly divided. Biden enjoyed a bigger gap with women and Trump with men when people were asked the leaning toward question instead.

The poll measured public opinion against the president as he battles to control the COVID-19 pandemic and public opinion about his handling of it. It also comes as Biden has adamantly denied a former staffer’s accusations of sexual assault.

When voters were asked about each candidate’s handling of the issues, in the battleground states, Trump scored higher on the economy and coronavirus response, and Biden scored higher on health care and on being a person who cares about people like the voters questioned. Battleground voters also rated Biden as more honest and trustworthy, as the candidate who can be trusted more in a crisis, and as more likely to unite the country. However, they found that Trump would manage the government more effectively and had more stamina and sharpness to be president.

In 2016, many polls underestimated Trump’s support. See an analysis of that phenomenon here.

Here’s what the poll shows specifically in the battleground states:


CNN/SSRS Poll

Donald Trump 52%
Joe Biden 45%
Other 1%
Neither 2%
Don’t Know/Undecided/Refused 1%
Sampling Error +/- 5.5%

Here’s the breakdown with gender and race included for each question:

CNN pollCNN poll battleground state results

However, when the poll presented results nationally, as opposed to focusing on battleground states, Biden led Trump 51% to 46%. That represents a slight drop for Biden in support since the last CNN poll in early April 2020.

According to the poll, it was conducted for CNN “via telephone by SSRS, an independent research company. Interviews were conducted from May 7-10, 2020 among a sample of 1,112 respondents. Interviews were conducted among a representative sample of the adult population, age 18 or older, of the United States.”

The poll was released on May 13. It also showed that more voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump than of Biden nationally.

You can see a round up of all recent 2020 presidential election polling from Real Clear Politics here.

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