Cristobal has been downgraded to a tropical depression, but it’s expected to regain strength once it is back in the Gulf of Mexico. Most forecasters expect it to at least strengthen back to a tropical storm before it ultimately makes landfall, but others think it might strengthen into a hurricane first.
Cristobal Live Radar & Tracker
This live radar is from Windy.com. This radar is very helpful for tracking the storm’s location. You can press the + button on the right-side of the map to zoom in more closely. You can also move the map ahead in time to see where the storm is forecast to be headed.
Google Maps is also updating the storm’s location here.
Cristobal’s Projected Path Has It Currently Heading to Louisiana
NOAA has a live map for the storm. The picture below is a screenshot but you can see the full map here. NOAA has the projected path for the storm as heading for Louisiana or far east Texas.
The Weather Channel also shared the following projected map, which shows a small chance of the storm heading to Houston, but most forecasts show it heading to Louisiana. Of course, this is a projected path that is far ahead in time and things could change. The storm is expected to not make landfall until likely Monday.
— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) June 4, 2020
Here is the National Hurricane Center’s projected landfall, which estimates the storm will arrive near the coast around Sunday afternoon.
According to the NOAA’s latest update, released at 4 p.m. Central on June 4, Cristobal is producing heavy rain and life-threatening flooding. The storm is expected to move back into the Gulf of Mexico by tomorrow (Friday) night. The storm’s location is at 17.5 N, 90.8 W and it’s about 165 miles south of Campeche, Mexico. It’s moving ESE or 110 degrees at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure is 999 MB (or 29.5 inches).
Maximum sustained winds are currently 35 mph with some higher gusts. There will be more weakening before the storm intensifies again.
The NOAA notes: “Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Cristobal. A tropical storm watch and a storm surge watch may be required for a portion of the area tonight or Friday.”
The NOAA also notes: “A turn toward the east and northeast is expected tonight,
and a subsequent generally northward motion should occur through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move over extreme northwestern Guatemala and eastern Mexico tonight and Friday. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico late Friday, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night.”
On Wednesday, Gov. John Bel Edwards shared the following about the storm, asking people not to focus too much on any particular track, but to expect a lot of rain.
At 4:45 p.m. on Thursday, the City of New Orleans released a press release about the storm, noting:
The City of New Orleans continues to monitor Cristobal, which has been downgraded to a tropical depression. It is forecast to remain near or over the Yucatan well into Friday and is forecast to regain tropical storm intensity as it moves northward through the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. On the forecast track, the likelihood of direct impacts to Southeast Louisiana continues to increase.
Several rounds of potentially heavy rainfall are possible, with some rounds well ahead of the storm. At least minor coastal flooding is expected due to persistent onshore winds, with more significant coastal flooding possible dependent on Cristobal’s eventual track and intensity. Sustained tropical storm force winds will be possible across portions of Southeast Louisiana. Depending on the structure of the storm as it approaches the coast, the strongest winds could occur away from Cristobal’s center.”
NWS Houston also noted that residents should continue to watch the storm’s track closely.
Thursday, 4p: Cristobal remains poorly organized this afternoon. The forecast still brings the storm to the northern Gulf Coast late Sunday/early Monday – it hasn't changed much, but still close enough that we'll need to keep watching carefully! pic.twitter.com/qhhtnq7nUH
— NWS Houston (@NWSHouston) June 4, 2020
Remember that projections this far out can be wrong, so it’s a good idea to stay tuned to the latest forecasts as the week progresses.
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