The presidential betting odds for today’s election have former Vice President Joe Biden poised to beat President Donald Trump. Biden’s betting odds for winning give him an advantage over Trump. Those odds have stayed fairly stable over the last 30 days, but Biden’s odds have decreased just a small amount in the last week.
Here are the latest updates on predictions and betting odds, including updates from early November 3, but they may change as the day progresses. Betting odds don’t necessarily translate to actual results, but they can provide insight into bettors’ current views on political situations.
PredictIt Shows Biden Favored to Win the Presidential Election
As of early morning Tuesday, November 3, Biden’s and Trump’s betting odds for winning the 2020 presidential election were separated by 19 cents.
“Yes” shares for Biden to win the election were priced at 63 cents. This represents a 63% chance that he would win the election, according to bettors’ predictions. Trump’s “yes” shares were at 44 cents. Of course, betting odds can and do frequently change.
You can see the latest results on PredictIt here. Betting odds can change frequently.
Kamala Harris is tied with Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker at 1 cent.
Charts comparing Trump and Biden over the last seven days give you a better idea of how things have changed recently. Trump’s odds have risen just slightly and Biden’s odds have decreased just slightly. Biden had reached a high of 68 cents and Trump had reached a low of 39 cents earlier this week.
A look at the last 30 days, provided by PredictIt, is more revealing. It shows just how stable these odds have been when viewed over 30 days rather than seven.
Here are PredictIt’s rules for the election betting odds:
The individual identified in the question shall be the winner of the 2020 U.S. presidential general election.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
ElectionBettingOdds.com Puts Biden in the Lead Too
Meanwhile, Biden is ahead of Trump on ElectionBettingOdds.com too. The odds here are compiled from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, and FTX.com. Biden is at 62.7% as of the early morning of November 3, and Trump is at 36.7%.
The chart for Trump vs Biden since 2017 is telling. Biden wasn’t even ranking on the charts much in 2017 or 2018 when he hadn’t announced his candidacy yet. But once he did and after he essentially secured the nomination, he had a huge spike in odds. For a bit, Trump still maintained a lead over him. But by later this year, that started to change. Both Elizabeth Warren’s and Bernie Sanders’ spikes didn’t get close to Biden’s.
Odds also favor Democrats getting Senate control in the 2020 election with 54.7% to Republicans’ 45.2%. Interestingly, when Heavy wrote a betting odds story in August, Democrats had stronger odds for getting Senate control at 60.2%. So while Republican Trump’s odds have decreased for winning, Democrats’ betting odds for Senate control have also decreased.
You can see the current presidential odds on ElectionBettingOdds here.
OddsShark Places Biden in the Lead
OddsShark also lists Biden as the favorite for winning the election. Bovada shows Biden’s betting odds at -186 versus Trump who is at +155. This has widened a bit since October 21, when Biden was -165 to Trump’s +125.
Odds Watch Has a Live Betting Tracker
Odds Watch has a live tracker for election betting odds from Betfair. It’s auto-generated and shows the current percentage chance (via bettors) that Biden will win. You can change the dropdown menu to indicate the odds of Trump winning.
The betting odds were at a 66% chance on Betfair early morning November 3 that Biden will win. You can see from the chart, which goes back to January, that Biden had a spike in March right around the time that the pandemic started, and also around the time it became clear he would be the Democratic nominee.
Trump’s odds are at 34% according to Odds Watch. There are other interesting betting odds to view too, such as the odds that a vaccine is approved this year (9%), odds Democrats will control the Senate (59%), and such.
You can track the results live here. The odds are updated every 15 minutes or so.